The banking industry's entry into stablecoins disrupts the landscape through both overt and covert strategies. Core events.
American giants like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo plan to jointly issue compliant stablecoins pegged 1:1 to the dollar, directly challenging the dominance of USDT/USDC and attempting to control the narrative in the crypto payment market. Cross-border settlement costs could be reduced from the traditional SWIFT's 5% to below 1% to prevent customer loss to crypto institutions like Coinbase. The U.S. payment stablecoin bill requires issuers to be licensed financial institutions, in order to suppress 'wild products' like Tether. Defense against digital dollars: The Federal Reserve's CBDC is progressing slowly, necessitating the construction of private digital currency barriers to counter tech giants like Meta disrupting traditional finance.
Restructuring the landscape: Bank-related stablecoins may siphon off 30% of USDT/USDC’s market share, potentially forcing Tether to seek banking partnerships for survival. If an API interface is opened, it could spark a new track of 'compliant DeFi' such as collateral lending protocols. Strengthening dollar hegemony: A 24/7 instant cross-border payment network that diminishes the influence of sovereign CBDCs like the digital euro and yuan.
Regulatory infighting: The jurisdiction dispute between the SEC and CFTC remains unresolved, potentially trapping banks in compliance quagmires. Technological competition: Interbank cooperation requires a unified blockchain standard, with private vs. public chains, and profit-sharing mechanisms prone to internal conflict. Trust crisis: The conflict between centralized models and crypto community ideals, compounded by historical stains on banks like the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, raises further doubts.
Future Forecast
Focusing on corporate trade financing and B2B cross-border applications, USDC may ally with banks to combat USDT. Potential integration with the Federal Reserve's FedNow system could create a 'banking vs. crypto' duopoly.
Accelerating the development of on-chain compliance tools like KYT anti-money laundering systems. Investors should go long on bank-related crypto stocks like Coinbase to hedge against USDT depreciation risks. Be cautious of severe liquidity fluctuations in the early stages of launch, and avoid high-leverage bets.
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