On May 22, 2025, Bitcoin price surged past 110,000 USDT, refreshing the historical high of 109,599 USDT set on January 20. This scene inevitably reminds one of that moment in November 2021. At that time, Bitcoin quickly fell back after briefly surpassing the high at the beginning of the year, initiating a long and profound bear market cycle. Now the market seems to be once again at a turning point of fate: will it break through again, opening a new round of upward space, or will history repeat itself, falling into a double top scenario after a 'false breakout', ultimately leading to a significant correction?
This is a question that cannot be ignored whenever Bitcoin approaches its historical highs. In past bull markets, we have repeatedly seen similar structures: the peak arrives, market sentiment is exuberant, and discussions about whether 'the cycle peak has arrived' arise one after another. In this round, although the upward trend and pace feel somewhat familiar, the deeper market structure has undergone significant changes.
Prices are replaying, but the market is no longer as it was yesterday. In this context, should we continue to believe that the 'cyclical law' brought by the halving still dominates Bitcoin's fate? Or should we acknowledge that a new rhythm has quietly unfolded in ETF funds, on-chain structures, and macro narratives?
Returning to the most fundamental observation methods, perhaps on-chain data, historical mirrors, and behavioral traces can still provide us with some cyclical insights. Is the current wave of increase the final sprint of cyclical inertia, or a new starting point after reconstructing the cyclical structure? Perhaps the answer lies in the context of the data.
For more than a decade, Bitcoin has consistently followed the principle of large-scale divergence between MVRV and spot prices, that is, once a divergence occurs where the price is higher but MVRV is lower, subsequent indicators cannot break through previous highs, and the price space is then suppressed.
The logic behind this is that as the cost of turnover increases, to push the price higher requires an exponential increase in capital.
The highest point of MVRV in this round appeared on March 11, 2024, with BTC price at $72,000 and MVRV at 2.78; thereafter, whether on December 17 or January 21, even if BTC price made new highs, MVRV never broke through 2.78.
Therefore, for this round, for BTC to aim for the stars and the sea, the first and most important step is to break the large-scale divergence of MVRV. According to the current dynamic RP value, it requires BTC price to break through $125,500.
