Bitcoin has been going crazy again recently, but this time it is completely different from 2021! It is not due to crazy speculation by retail investors, but because large institutions are secretly hoarding coins behind the scenes, and the market has become more "stable".
1. What is the QCP index? Simply put, it is the market's "health checkup form"
In the previous bull market, retail investors borrowed money crazily to invest in stocks (with extremely high leverage), and prices rose quickly and collapsed quickly.
Now the bull market：Large institutions (such as funds and banks) are hoarding Bitcoin crazily, making the market more stable and reducing speculative behavior.
For example：Just like the stock market has changed from "aunties scrambling for stocks" to "institutions quietly hoarding high-quality assets", the risk is lower, but the threshold is higher.
2. What is the reason for this round of surge? Two key reasons
① Policy relaxation: Countries begin to “turn a blind eye”
United States: Approved Bitcoin fund, ordinary people can also buy it
Europe: No longer strictly checking cryptocurrency transactions.
result：Large institutions (such as BlackRock and Grayscale) dare to buy Bitcoin with confidence.
②Technology upgrade: Bitcoin "highway" has been repaired
The underlying network of Bitcoin (Ethereum) has been accelerated, and the transaction fees have gone from being "highly expensive" to being "cheap as hell".
Large institutions have begun to use Bitcoin to make financial products (such as wealth management and insurance) to attract more money.
3. Retail investors vs. institutions: This time, retail investors have become “outsiders”
The current situation of retail investors:
Fewer people are borrowing money to trade cryptocurrencies: the leverage ratio has dropped from 125 times (gambling one’s entire fortune) to 35 times (small-scale trading).
Fewer people are being scammed: The number of contract liquidations has decreased by 82%. Many people have learned their lesson and no longer go all in.
Institutional conspiracy:
Secretly hoarding coins: Grayscale Fund bought 220% of Bitcoin in 4 months, but did not tell the public.
Manipulating the market：Institutions control prices like market makers, but this time they are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for retail investors to chase high prices before selling.
For example：It’s like a real estate developer holding on to good properties and not selling them until the housing prices reach their peak before selling them to retail investors at high prices.
4. What are the “tricks” hidden in this round of bull market?
Lie 1: Can you still make money if Bitcoin is halved?
The truth: The mining cost increased from $30,000 to $80,000, but institutions used futures (locking prices in advance) to hoard coins at low prices, while retail investors took over at high prices.
Lie 2: Is decentralized finance (DeFi) dead?
The truth: DeFi’s locked-in volume has exceeded 30 billion U.S. dollars, but 90% of the money comes from institutions, and retail investors only have a 5% share.
Lie 3: Regulatory relaxation = easy money?
The truth: The United States approves Bitcoin funds, but requires them to be held in custody with traditional banks to facilitate taxation and monitoring.
5. What should ordinary people do? You have two endings to choose from.
If the bull run continues:
Bitcoin may rise to $150,000, but institutions will make three times as much money as retail investors (because they hoarded it early).
Ordinary people want to buy? They may only be able to pay a high price, or be fooled into buying altcoins (high risk).
If the bull market crashes:
If institutions sell off in groups, Bitcoin may fall below $30,000, triggering a series of liquidations (similar to 2022).
The hard-earned money of ordinary people has evaporated, but the institutions have already cashed out and left.
The most heartbreaking conclusion
This round of Bitcoin surge is essentially a "compliance game" by large institutions:
They use policy relaxation as a talisman and technological upgrading as a fig leaf, turning the market into a "rich man's game."
Retail investors can either be ripped off or just be spectators.
Ordinary people who want to enter the market should first ask themselves - should they just follow the trend and become cannon fodder, or should they learn the anti-cutting guidelines in advance?
There are opportunities and risks in the cryptocurrency world. Staying vigilant and finding the right time is the key. I also found a short-term skyrocketing project with great potential for doubling! If you want to keep up, click on the avatar and follow me, and share for free!
