ETH Future Contract Strategy for the Next Two Months

From the weekly perspective, on October 26, 2023, there was a strong surge of 63%, peaking at 4098.6. It then retraced and rebounded to a secondary high of 3775, before declining to 2234.2, and then strongly rebounding to create the year's highest point at 4109.99, overall presenting a pattern of rapid large rises and falls in consolidation.

Subsequently, the price quickly exited a narrow downward channel, dropping to the year's lowest point of 1384. After absorbing liquidity, it rebounded for six consecutive weekly candles, returning to the previous consolidation range. On the surface, this appears to be a strong bullish trend, but from the annual high of 4109.9 to the low of 1384, this movement is actually a strong decline. The current six weekly candle rebounds are merely the first retracement; in price action analysis, such rebounds have about an 80% chance of failing.

Additionally, this rebound has left a significant gap that needs to be filled, with a key resistance level at 2860, while the outlook remains bearish below. In the short term, attention can be given to the 1-hour level support at 2630; if it breaks below 2630, then switch to the 5-15 minute level to seek short positions on rebounds, targeting 2450, with a stop loss at 2650. As long as it stays below 2630, maintain a bearish outlook; if the price breaks below 2450 with weak rebound, continue the small cycle bearish trend, taking profits at 2240-2000, with a stop loss at 2450-2490.

If the price breaks above 2860.9 on the 4-12 hour level, this strategy becomes invalid, and long positions can be considered, but it is necessary to wait for a retracement before entering to avoid false breakouts.

The above is a personal strategy for reference only.