Midday Outlook
1. BTC
Price Trend Scenario Analysis
Scenario 1: Accelerated Bottom Testing
Trigger Condition: Price breaks below $110,800
Target Path:
First Support: $109,500-$110,000
Second Support: $108,200-$108,800 with further whale selling.
Scenario 2: Weak Rebound
Trigger Condition: Price stabilizes at $111,300
Rebound Limit:
Resistance 1: $111,800-$112,000
Resistance 2: $112,500
Scenario 3: Liquidity Crisis
Extreme Event: Mt. Gox creditors confirm large transfers, U.S. Treasury issues new cryptocurrency tax policy.
Impact Range: Price may flash crash below $105,000, testing $102,800
Operational Strategy
1. Short Strategy
Open Short at Current Price: Short positions in the range of $111,000-$111,200, stop loss set at $111,600, target $109,800-$110,200.
2. Long Strategy
Left Side Bottom Fishing: If the price drops sharply to $108,800 and 4-hour RSI < 25, take a small long position, stop loss at $108,000, target $110,000.
Right Side Breakout: After a strong hold above $112,000, enter long on a pullback, stop loss at $111,200, target $113,500.
