The crypto dinner hosted by Trump on May 22, 2025, is like a heavy bomb, stirring up ripples in the cryptocurrency market and the political arena. This dinner not only became a catalyst for short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market but also buried hidden dangers for long-term development.
The dinner raised $394 million through an auction of Trump’s official token TRUMP, with participants investing an average of about $1.79 million each, and the top seven spent over $10 million. Once the news broke, the price of TRUMP tokens fluctuated drastically, like a shot of adrenaline, driving related Meme coins and TRON tokens to rise in the short term. The TRON token increased by 2.3% on Binance, with trading volume surging by 18%, and the participation of well-known individuals like Sun Yat-sen further sustained the market's heat.
Trump has consistently released friendly signals to the crypto industry, such as relaxing regulations and promoting a national Bitcoin reserve plan. This dinner reinforced his image, allowing the market to see potential favorable policies, which may attract more traditional funds into the crypto field, injecting new vitality into the industry's development.
However, this dinner also hides huge risks. 72% of the dinner participants are non-U.S. investors, and they have evaded U.S. campaign donation restrictions through anonymous wallets and overseas exchanges, which has sparked legal controversies. Democratic lawmakers have proposed to ban similar activities, and stricter regulatory measures are likely to be introduced in the future, tightening the 'shackles' on the industry.
TRUMP tokens are 80% controlled by companies associated with Trump, and the transaction fees have brought in nearly $900,000 in revenue, suspected of profiting from the presidential identity. Although the SEC temporarily avoids scrutiny under the label of 'collectibles,' there may still be subsequent securities charges, which undoubtedly hang over the market like a sword of Damocles.
On-chain data shows that the circulating market value of TRUMP tokens is only $4 billion, and there are signs of centralized control, such as contract permission modifications and large whales selling off in advance, leading to significant liquidity tightening and price bubble risks. After the dinner, some participants sold off their holdings, and yesterday during the day, I specifically posted about the possibility of shorting Trump coins at high levels, causing sharp price fluctuations that left investors anxious.
The dinner has also been criticized as 'exchanging money for political access,' damaging public trust in government integrity. Election ethics experts point out that such activities could undermine the 'decentralization' ideal of blockchain technology, turning the industry into a 'digital casino of power games' and harming the industry's reputation.
From a comprehensive assessment, in the short term, the effect of political celebrities and speculative demand may continue to drive up the prices of TRUMP and related Meme coins, especially if Trump further releases favorable policies, such as promoting Bitcoin reserve legislation, the market may welcome another wave of increase. However, in the long term, tightened regulation, compliance risks, and exposure of market manipulation will exacerbate industry volatility, potentially triggering systemic corrections. The intertwining of the Trump family's business interests with public policy may also undermine market confidence, causing investors to hesitate.
The impact of this dinner on the crypto market shows characteristics of 'short-term rise and long-term fall.' Investors need to be wary of emotion-driven short-term rallies and closely monitor subsequent regulatory trends and the implementation of Trump’s policies. When investing, priority should be given to assets with strong compliance, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, to avoid potential risks and proceed cautiously in this volatile market.
