$BTC My Perspective on BTC: What I'm Thinking After It Surged to $111,000

1. External bullets keep feeding – The ETF 'faucet' really hasn’t been turned off

- After looking at the data last night, BlackRock's IBIT spot BTC ETF has poured in over $500 million. The entire US version of the spot ETF has seen net inflows for 19 consecutive days, making it feel like BTC is getting an all-weather IV drip.

- Intuitive feeling: Traditional institutions' long money is slowly absorbing the publicly circulating chips, with prices being subtly and chronically repurchased. As long as the faucet remains open, shorts will have to hold back.

2. On-chain heat is real money, not just talk

- Realized Cap has surged above $900 billion for the first time, which represents the real cost on-chain. In other words, real money has been moved to a higher average price level.

- Glassnode suggests: Short-term holders are making money, but selling pressure hasn’t spiraled out of control. My interpretation is: there are sellers, but more buyers, so the supply-demand leverage still leans towards bulls.

3. A few insights from the charts

- The moving averages are arranged in the order of MA 7 > MA 25 > MA 99, forming a 'high-speed rail track'; the trend hasn't shown a turning point yet.

- The MACD golden cross bars are still emerging, and momentum is accelerating, not decelerating.

- ATR occupies about 5% of the closing price; the volatility is significant, meaning it can rise quickly, and the same goes for falling.

- The funding rate is only around 0.01% every 8 hours; leverage is relatively restrained and hasn't reached the level of a widespread frenzy.

4. Four risks I'm watching

1. US Treasury yields: If the 10-year yield suddenly spikes, high-valued assets will tremble, and BTC will undoubtedly be affected.

2. ETF reversal: If I see an outflow of more than $200 million in a single day from the ETF, it could mean big funds are hitting the brakes.

3. Rate combined with OI exploding: If the funding rate exceeds 0.05% every 8 hours and OI rapidly climbs, it usually indicates that leveraged players are nearing the exit.

4. Regulatory black swan: Any negative legislation or unfavorable lawsuits against major exchanges in Europe and the US could instantly change sentiment expectations.

5. Summary

The long money from ETFs combined with real on-chain money is the dual engine driving this surge. I'm maintaining a trend-following mindset, but I will never forget to install a pain relief valve for myself. As long as the aforementioned risks flash together, it's time to take cover. After a long time, I've come to understand: fall in love with the trend, but get a license with risk.

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Risk Disclaimer

The above is my market notes and does not constitute any investment advice.