Recently, I discovered several very important considerations and suggested strategies during #事件合约 trading. Below is a summary.
1. Trading Status: If you did not rest well the night before, feel unwell, or are in a bad mood, you must not trade. Initiate a cooling-off period for one day. Having a good state of mind is the beginning of trading.
2. Trading Environment: Trading must be done in a study or a dedicated trading room. Turn on the air conditioning and adjust the humidity to make yourself physically and mentally comfortable. If you are outside, do not trade because event contracts move too quickly and require sound judgment. A noisy environment can severely affect your judgment and lead to emotional trading.
3. Trading Strategies: Position management is crucial; each trade can only be a maximum of 20% of your total position. For example, with a total capital of $100, the maximum you can stake per trade is $20, and the remaining $80 should be moved directly to a savings account. This $20 should be divided into several orders; do not place it all in one go. Generally, it's best to divide it into 3-4 parts. The reason is that the final market outcome is determined by precise prices, and if you go all in, your chances of winning are too small.
1. Position Orders: Suppose the current price of ETH is $2500, and both the 1-hour and 15-minute, and 5-minute charts are bullish. The chances of a price increase are high, so choose a 30-minute cycle with an 85% payout. We will place a $20 order, divided into 4 parts of $5 each. Enter the first order at $2500. If the price rises immediately after buying, do not chase it further; let it rise. As long as it doesn’t drop within these 30 minutes, do not place a second order. If it drops to $2498, place the second order; at $2496, the third order; and at $2495, the fourth order. This is the logic. If you entered with one or two orders and then the price goes up, just wait until this wave is finished before making the next move. This strategy is extremely important. This is how we amplify our winning chances through position orders. If the price at the end of 30 minutes closes at $2497.9, then $2500 and $2498 lose, while the other two orders gain. If you went all in, you would lose everything. To repeat, this is how we amplify our winning chances through position orders.
2. Prepare Two Accounts: Account A is for trading, and Account B is for receiving money. The trading account (A) doesn’t need further explanation; what’s important is the receiving account (B). Set the receiving account to have a permanent cooling-off period for event contracts and USDT contracts, using it only for receiving money or withdrawals. The purpose is to prevent emotional trading using this account. For example, if Account A has a principal of $100 and makes a profit of $50 today, transfer $15-$20 to Account B. Tomorrow, continue trading with Account A. If you continue to make profits, transfer 30% to Account B to save. This action is crucial, or you can directly convert it to RMB. The key is to periodically transfer money out of the trading account. Only by doing this can you reduce the risk of emotional trading leading to total loss.
3. Mandatory Cooling-off Period: If you make two consecutive wrong trades in one day, you must initiate a cooling-off period for one day. The market is not at fault; you are. Stand firm when you take a hit. If you make two mistakes in a row, take a cooling-off period. Withdraw from your savings account to your trading account tomorrow, ensuring that your trading account has the same principal amount for each trade. This way, you won’t make heavy bets due to a smaller principal and risk losing even more out of emotional reactions.
In summary: This is a summary of some insights on event contracts so far, which will be supplemented later. Additionally, it is important to manage trends effectively when dealing with event contracts; this cannot be taught, and you must learn it yourself. I will gradually share my methods in the future, but I can straightforwardly tell everyone that judging trends is a complex process. Don't be fooled by scammers who claim that Bollinger Bands and single moving averages can improve win rates; 99% of that is nonsense. When it comes to trading systems, it gets quite complex, and it cannot be explained in just a few words. Please follow me, and I will share more gradually.
