On May 21, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) broke $110,000 on the Binance exchange, setting a new historical high, with Coinbase's spot price reaching $110,852, and the total market cap soaring to $2.165 trillion, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth largest asset globally. This round of increase is not driven by short-term speculation but is jointly driven by institutional waves, liquidity siphoning, and regulatory thawing. This article will deeply analyze the underlying logic of this bull market and forecast possible future trends.

I. Three core driving forces of the Bitcoin bull market

1. Institutional wave: The 'digital gold' strategy of public companies and Wall Street

Public company hoarding: The total amount of Bitcoin held by public companies has reached $349 billion, accounting for 15% of the circulation. Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla continue to increase their holdings, and traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan and Cantor Fitzgerald have launched special Bitcoin funds, replicating the 'MicroStrategy model'—optimizing balance sheets and boosting stock prices through BTC allocation.

Bitcoin ETF funding frenzy: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows exceeding $40 billion in a single week, with continued purchases from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity forming strong support.

Coinbase included in S&P 500: This milestone event allows traditional index funds to passively allocate crypto assets, further reinforcing Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative.

II. Liquidity siphoning: Supply-demand imbalance drives prices to spiral upwards

Non-liquid supply reaches historical peak: Glassnode data shows that the proportion of long-term holders (LTH) locking up their holdings has hit a new high, while exchange BTC balances have fallen to their lowest levels since 2018, with market circulation continuously shrinking.

Miners reluctant to sell: After the fourth halving, listed mining companies (such as Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms) are adjusting their strategies, transferring 65% of their mining output into long-term reserves instead of selling directly.

Retail FOMO sentiment is heating up: After breaking historical highs, retail funds are accelerating their entry, and the derivatives market's open interest (OI) and funding rate are both skyrocketing.

3. Regulatory thaw: Policy dividends open traditional funding floodgates

(GENIUS stablecoin bill) passed: The U.S. Congress provides a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins and crypto assets, eliminating uncertainties for institutional entry.

Trump administration's 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' plan: Some national sovereign funds and pensions are beginning to explore BTC allocation, further reinforcing its 'anti-inflation asset' attributes.

Global central bank rate-cutting cycle begins: After the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in Q1 2025, expectations for market liquidity easing strengthen, driving funds towards high-risk assets.

II. Technical Analysis: Can Bitcoin impact higher targets?

1. Short-term trends: Key resistance and support

$106,500 becomes new support: If the weekly close on May 25 is above this price level, it will set the longest consecutive increase record since October 2023.

Fibonacci extension target: Based on the 2023-2025 cycle estimation, the next key resistance level is at $135,000 (1.618 extension).

II. Medium to long-term forecast: Divergence and consensus

Conservative stance (e.g., Peter Brandt): Believes the bull market will last until the end of 2025, with targets of $125,000-$150,000.

Aggressive stance (e.g., Gert van Lagen): Technical indicators show Bitcoin has broken through the 'megaphone pattern', with theoretical targets reaching $300,000-$320,000.

Elliott Wave Theory: Currently in the fifth wave impulse phase; if historical patterns continue, the increase may reach 170%-190%.

3. Risk warning: Overheated leverage and market sentiment

High leverage area warning: BTC heat map shows the price has entered a liquidation-intensive zone, and significant volatility may occur in the short term.

Exchange contract risks: The perpetual contract funding rate remains high, and caution is needed regarding pullbacks triggered by long liquidations.

III. Conclusion: The bull market is not over, but rational layout is needed

Bitcoin's breakthrough of $110,000 marks a new phase for the crypto market, with factors such as institutional-driven capital inflow, regulatory compliance, and long-term holders locking assets together forming a solid bullish foundation. However, market sentiment has entered the 'greed' zone (Fear and Greed Index > 80), and investors should be cautious:

Avoid high leverage chasing after rises, pay attention to the effectiveness of support at $106,500.

Pay attention to changes in macro liquidity, especially signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

Long-term holders (LTH) movement: If large-scale profit-taking occurs, it may trigger a phase adjustment.

Final target outlook: In the context of institutionalization and global liquidity easing, Bitcoin's current cycle is expected to challenge $150,000-$200,000, but the process will inevitably be accompanied by high volatility. Investors should remain rational and adopt dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips strategies rather than blindly FOMO.

(This article does not constitute investment advice; the market has risks, and decisions must be made cautiously.)

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