There are only two types of coins in the world: 'Bitcoin and other coins.' On April 9, when we saw the market starting with 60,000, we gradually bought in. Now at 110,000, it’s almost time to start selling gradually.
Bitcoin and Gold Market Analysis Report:
As of May 22, 2025, Bitcoin and gold have shown resilience and growth potential amidst fluctuations in the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin's price reached $111,268, a historic high, while gold stabilized at $3,315.14 per ounce. The S&P 500 index fell 1.61% on May 21, reflecting market concerns over the fiscal deficit. Sentiment indicators show increased market volatility, with complex investor sentiment, and a fear & greed index of 66, indicating a dominant greedy sentiment. Research shows that Bitcoin is generally positively correlated with the S&P 500, but recent decoupling may occur; gold, on the other hand, has performed as a safe-haven asset under market pressure. Predictions suggest that both may continue to rise in 2025, but macroeconomic and geopolitical risks should be monitored.
Market Overview
As of May 22, 2025, 14:05 HKT, the financial markets present complex dynamics:
Bitcoin: The price is $111,268, up approximately 3.46% from $107,551 on May 21, driven by favorable U.S. regulations (such as progress on the stablecoin bill), reaching a historic high.
Gold: The price is $3,315.14 per ounce, slightly down 0.20% from $3,321.93 on May 21, supported by a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, showing stable performance.
S&P 500: Closed at 5,844.61 points on May 21, down 1.61%, mainly due to concerns about the fiscal deficit and volatility in the bond market.
News reports show that on May 21, the market faced sell-offs due to deficit issues, with the Dow Jones falling 817 points (1.91%) and the Nasdaq down 1.41%.
Bitcoin rose against the trend due to regulatory optimism, while gold remained stable due to safe-haven demand.
Sentiment Indicator Analysis
The following are key sentiment indicators reflecting market sentiment and volatility:
VIX Index: Closed at 20.87 on May 21, up 15.37% from the previous day, above the level of 20 indicates increased market volatility and heightened investor concerns.
Call/Put Option Ratio: The overall ratio is 0.89, below 1, indicating that the trading volume of call options is higher than that of put options, reflecting a slight bullish sentiment; however, the index option ratio is 1.10, suggesting a strong bearish sentiment towards the overall market.
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: For the week ending May 21, bullish sentiment was at 37.7% (slightly below the historical average of 38.0%), bearish sentiment was at 36.7% (above the average of 30.5%), and neutral sentiment was at 25.6% (below the average of 31.5%), indicating a divergence in market sentiment, slightly leaning towards caution.
Fear and Greed Index: As of May 21, 20:00 ET, it was at 66, in the 'Greed' zone, indicating that investors are leaning optimistic, but it contrasts with the decline in the S&P 500, possibly reflecting lagging sentiment or complex market dynamics.
These indicators suggest complex market sentiment, with rising volatility coexisting with greedy sentiment, possibly driving investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Asset Performance and Correlation
Bitcoin has performed strongly recently, rising 3.46% from May 21 to May 22, from $107,551 to $111,268.
Over the past year (from May 2024 to May 2025), the price surged from $68,372.49 to $111,267.84, an increase of approximately 62.7%.
Over the past month (from April 24, 2025, to May 22, 2025), it rose from $93,605.45 to $111,267.84, an increase of approximately 18.9%.
On May 21, while the S&P 500 fell, Bitcoin rose against the trend due to favorable regulations (such as the stablecoin bill), showing short-term decoupling.
Research indicates that Bitcoin is generally positively correlated with the S&P 500, for example:
2024: S&P 500 up 24%, Bitcoin up 135%.
2023: S&P 500 up 26%, Bitcoin up 147%.
2022: S&P 500 down 19%, Bitcoin down 65%.
This indicates that Bitcoin often serves as an amplified version of the S&P 500, with higher volatility.
However, the performance on May 21 indicates it may decouple from the stock market due to specific events (such as favorable regulations).
The gold price slightly declined 0.20% from May 21 to May 22, from $3,321.93 to $3,315.14, showing stable performance.
In the past week (from May 15 to 21), it rose from $3,239.96 to $3,321.93, up about 2.5%.
In the first quarter of 2025, the average gold price is $2,860 per ounce, up 38% year-on-year, and has repeatedly reached historic highs.
On May 21, as the S&P 500 fell, gold remained stable due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, aligning with the characteristics of safe-haven assets.
Research shows that the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 is unstable.
From 2018 to 2023, the long-term correlation was +80%, indicating a positive correlation;
However, from January 2022 to July 2023, it was +51%, and under market pressure (such as on May 21), gold often shows negative correlation or stable performance.
The table below summarizes the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500:
Assets
Correlation with S&P 500
Recent Performance (May 21)
Remarks
Bitcoin
Generally positively correlated, but may decouple recently
S&P 500 down 1.61%, Bitcoin up 3.46%
Driven by favorable regulations
Gold
Mixed correlation, tending towards negative correlation under market pressure
S&P 500 down 1.61%, gold slightly down 0.20%
Safe-haven demand support
Future Outlook
Analysts are generally bullish on Bitcoin prices for 2025:
Changelly predicts the price will range between $100,146.80 and $119,000.70 in 2025, averaging around $137,854.60.
CoinCodex predicts it will reach $114,804 by June 20, possibly higher by year-end.
Long Forecast predicts it will reach $109,674 by the end of May and $128,798 by July.
Benzinga predicts a range from $84,643 to $181,064, with an average of $125,027.
Driving factors include institutional investment, ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and the appeal of being an inflation hedge. If the S&P 500 continues to fluctuate, investors may further turn to Bitcoin, but its high volatility needs to be approached with caution.
Gold price predictions are similarly optimistic:
InvestingHaven predicts over $3,275 in 2025 and nearly $3,805 in 2026.
LiteFinance predicts it will reach $3,357.00 by year-end, with an optimistic forecast of $3,720.38.
Goldman Sachs predicts it will reach $3,700 by year-end, potentially reaching $3,880 under recession scenarios.
Reuters polls forecast an average price of $3,065 in 2025.
Driving factors include ongoing central bank purchases, a weaker dollar, declining interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks. The stability of gold as a safe-haven asset makes it more attractive amid market uncertainty.
Conclusion
Both Bitcoin and gold exhibit upward potential in the current market environment.
Bitcoin is driven by favorable regulations and institutional investments, expected to continue rising significantly in 2025, but with high volatility.
Gold is supported by safe-haven demand and macroeconomic factors, expected to appreciate steadily with low volatility.
Investors should weigh the allocation of both based on risk tolerance and investment horizon while closely monitoring Federal Reserve policies, dollar trends, and global events.
