ETH Directly Hitting the Blackboard: The area around 2500 is the main force's wash zone. After the oscillation, a surge to 3000 is highly probable, but to catch the big meat at 4000, one must endure the bumps. Three practical logic points explained:

1. Moving Averages Play 'High-Low Leverage', Washes Strong but Doesn't Fall Deep

Don’t be fooled by the current price hovering around 2500; the 7-day line and the 30-day line are far below, supporting it, equivalent to the main force holding the price steady at 2500 while washing.

This 'floating oscillation' routine is common before a major market move, exhausting impatient retail investors with sideways movement. As long as the weekly line does not break 1700, the upward trend is firmly established.

2. MACD Clearly Shows the Path while Concealing the Strategy

Although the MACD histogram is green, the DIF and DEA are almost entangled face-to-face, which is called the 'water massage line'. In plain language: The bulls are deliberately showing weakness around 2500, waiting for retail investors to cut losses before reversing and pulling up. The true signal for a trend change is whether the DIF can cross above the DEA a second time; once a golden cross occurs, it’s a charge signal.

3. Trading Volume Exposes the Main Force's Bottom Cards

Currently, the volume has shrunk by 25% compared to the 5-day average, yet the price hasn’t collapsed? This indicates that the main force has locked in positions! This 'shrinking volume sideways' is essentially 'using time to exchange for space'; once the indecisive chips are shaken off, the volume will suddenly double during a breakout.

Key Position Script

Defense Line: 1700-1730 range, breaking below means to run

Charge Line: Stabilizing above 2600 can add positions, breaking above the previous high of 2738 will trigger a short squeeze, directly rushing to 3000

Ultimate Target: 2024 ETH Cancun upgrade + ETF expectations, 4000 is just a conservative estimate

Operation Guide

Spot Traders:

1. Gradually accumulate at the 1700-1800 range

2. Don’t move those held near 2500; if it breaks 2650, you can chase the rise

3. Above 3000, reduce positions by 1/3 for every 500 dollar increase

Contract Traders:

1. Open long near the current price of 2500 with a stop loss at 2450; add positions upon breaking 2600

2. If it breaks below 2400, go short, targeting 2250

3. Don’t chase aggressively once it violently pushes above 2700; wait for a pullback to 2600 to re-enter

Bloody Reminder:

1. Don’t believe in the nonsense that 'the horizontal length determines the vertical height'! ETH will at least wash for 3-5 days, contract traders should not play if they can’t withstand it

2. Be wary of BTC drawing blood: If BTC surges to 130,000, ETH may suffer from a blood-sucking oscillation, but holding long-term won’t lead to losses

3. Latest data from exchanges: There are 120 million dollars of options expiring near 2500; the main force is definitely going to make a move

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