Today’s lunch:

The market trends over the past two days over the weekend show that the risk aversion of funds has been very strong, because this week has reached the most critical point for the ETF to be launched. On January 10, the SEC must make a final decision on ARK’s application. , then the conclusion of buying expectations and selling reality mentioned before is basically established, that is, the closer to the landing node, the more speculation funds will start to retreat, because the expectations of these funds are that no matter whether they pass or not, as long as they land, it will be negative . It can also be seen that the entire market is currently only holding on for big money, and all small coins have basically dropped more than 20% from their highs, and some have even dropped by more than 50%. Now it seems that the market outlook may have the following situations:

1. The SEC announced that it has passed, so the most likely ones to pass are BlackRock and ARK. If they passed, in fact, many other institutions can also be considered to have passed. However, it should be noted that it will take some time before the approval is passed and the actual ETF is listed for trading. It will take about two weeks at the fastest and two months at the slowest.

2. If the SEC rejects it, then the ARK family should be rejected, because the others can be postponed until March. During this period, ARK can still apply again. If it passes, then this 2WEEK-2MONTH vacuum period may be a shock period or an adjustment period (tends to adjust). If you refuse, then just like what was said last Friday, the 12% drop will be thrown directly on your face.

In fact, it has only been these two days. There is no need to panic, because there will definitely be another decline before the real bull market starts. Look at this on-chain data chart. There will be one before the two halvings in 2016 and 2020. There is a large amount of supply. I don’t need to explain the reason for it. If you think about it, you will know that it is the supply from miners. The realization before the halving is basically not possible because the block reward has been reduced and the cost will inevitably increase. First, the realization of the future Electricity costs, and secondly, possible expenses such as hardware upgrades to the mining machine.

In terms of market conditions, the big pie is still supported by news. No one can predict the outcome, but the probability of passing is still greater than rejecting. This is my personal expectation. I also said it last Friday. If you want to eat this, it will accelerate. , just like the invincible Xiaoqiang, go up with the iron head.Of course this is not suitable for everyone, it is just a rat's nest in anticipation of passing. There is no problem with holding spot positions and other results, but judging from the current momentum, if the big pie passes and accelerates, there is a question mark as to whether the copycat will follow or return to the previous peak, but no matter how it passes, , we should also reduce our positions. People have asked a lot about the COSMOS ecosystem. In fact, the biggest increase in the ecosystem is our big demon INJ. INJ’s performance this round is still very strong, and we can still look forward to the future. If you are buying the bottom, you must not forget this demon. After all, it has entered a new era. The three demons failed to hold on at 5 this time, but the rebound is acceptable and you can continue to hold positions. Today’s panic and greed index: 71 (greed) The decline of Shanzhai has not come down, which shows that the expectations for the big pie are still very strong.