Currently, the trend of $BTC seems a bit overheated, with prices stuck around 110,000.
There are a few warning signals to pay attention to: first, the RSI has surged to 82, and historically, every time it exceeds 80, there is a correction of about 10%; second, the trading volume is lagging behind, with the actual trading volume at only 33,000, which is 40% less than the estimated 57,000, resembling a situation where the accelerator is pressed to the floor but the fuel tank is nearly empty.
In the short term, the 110,000 threshold poses significant pressure, as the previous three attempts to break through this level have been thwarted. Although the MACD histogram is still rising, the EMA7 moving average is at 108,000, creating a gap with the current price, which may lead to a pullback to confirm support at any time.
If it cannot hold above 109,000 in the next couple of days, it is highly likely to drop to around 105,000, with extreme cases potentially dipping to 102,000, the starting point on May 16.
At this position, do not chase the price; it is better to wait for two types of opportunities: either a volume breakout above 111,000 or a sharp drop to around 105,000 to catch a rebound. Data from miners and exchanges also indicate that large holders are quietly reducing their positions, making this price point not very cost-effective.
The market changes every day; try not to get too anxious. If you always feel a step behind or are disturbed by market noise, feel free to reach out.
