Hello everyone! Let's break down the current outlook of $BTC and I will write here everything I have observed in the historical data of each week, so you know where we are heading in the medium term.
1. Current price and price action
Current price: $109,669.35 (+2.62%)
Maximum in 24h: $110,797.38
Minimum in 24h: $106,100.01
A clear bullish movement is observed on the chart, with a strong recent rise and consecutive green candles. The price is near the recent high, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum in the short term.
2. Exponential (EMA) and Simple Moving Averages (MA)
EMA(7): 99,513.48
EMA(25): 91,239.26
EMA(99): 68,769.43
MA(5): 133,450.64
MA(10): 150,193.48
The short-term EMAs are clearly above the long-term ones, and the price is trading well above all of them. This confirms a strong bullish trend. However, an excess above the EMA(7) could indicate that the price is overextended and a technical pullback might come.
3. MACD
DIF: 5,074.18
DEA: 3,613.08
MACD: 1,461.10
The MACD is in positive territory with the DIF line above the DEA, reinforcing the bullish signal. The distance between both lines suggests that there is still momentum, although signs of possible exhaustion in the bullish strength are beginning to appear.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI(6): 81.27
An RSI above 70 indicates that the asset is overbought, which could mean a near-term pullback. However, in strong trends, the RSI can remain high for longer.
5. Stochastic and KDJ
K: 86.94
D: 71.10
J: 118.62
STOCHRSI: 100
These values show a clear zone of extreme overbought, with J above 100. This reinforces the alert of a possible correction in the short term.
6. OBV (On-Balance Volume)
OBV: 16,341,707.23
The OBV is increasing, indicating that the volume supports the bullish movement, validating the momentum.
7. Williams %R
%R(14): -3.16
Value close to 0, indicating an overbought situation. In a strong trending market this can persist, but it is also a signal that a technical pullback could be imminent.
Possible scenarios
Scenario 1: Bullish continuation
If it breaks and consolidates above the recent high ($110,797), it could seek the next psychological resistance at $115,000 – $120,000.
Requires sustained volume and positive news from the macro or institutional environment.
Scenario 2: Technical pullback
The RSI, stochastic, and Williams %R are in overbought territory. A healthy correction could bring the price to:
Support 1: EMA(7) at $99,513
Support 2: EMA(25) at $91,239
Major support: EMA(99) at $68,769
Scenario 3: Consolidation
Possible lateralization between $106,000 – $110,000, absorbing sales before taking a new direction.
Summary and recommendations
Current trend: Strong bullish.
Momentum indicators: In overbought territory.
Volume: Solid, supporting the rise.
Caution: High risk of correction in the short term.
Suggested strategy:
Long-term investors: Maintain position but consider areas for partial profit-taking.
Traders: Be cautious with long entries now; wait for pullbacks or breakout confirmations to trade.
Remember, this is not investment advice, but rather a thorough professional analysis I made based on my knowledge.
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