✨Market Sentiment

Bitcoin has broken through the $109,000 barrier, triggering a divergence in market sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is clearly in the 'Greed' zone (around 70–80 points), indicating an overall optimistic sentiment. However, community discussions and retail interest have not surged in tandem: Google searches for 'Bitcoin' remain sluggish, comparable to the bear market of 2022; this suggests that the current rally is driven by institutional funds, while retail investors are mostly on the sidelines. Overall, despite a rebound in mainstream public sentiment, there is still a lack of the widespread enthusiasm seen at the peak of previous bull markets. This phenomenon of 'high price, low discussion' brings two-sided risks: some view it as the 'calm before the storm', while others worry that without broad participation, the rally may be hard to sustain.

✨Capital Flow

The market's capital flow strongly favors accumulation of buy orders. On one hand, the total market capitalization of stablecoins continues to rise, suggesting that investors are prepared to enter the market at any time; on the other hand, a significant amount of Bitcoin is flowing from exchanges to cold wallets. On-chain data shows that in mid-May, 2,218 BTC (approximately $227 million) were transferred from platforms like Binance and Kraken to private wallets within just 24 hours, causing exchange reserves to drop to about 2.1 million BTC, a three-month low. Such large withdrawals are typically seen as a signal for long-term holding, indicating that major funds are moving tokens into their own custody at high prices, increasing the scarcity of circulating supply. On another front, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see significant net inflows: on May 20 alone, about $329 million flowed in, with a cumulative total exceeding $3.3 billion over the previous week. These institutional inflows reinforce spot demand and raise prices, reflecting a bullish attitude among large holders and institutions.

✨Technical Charts and Volume

Comparing historical highs and volume-price performance, the current market conditions are conducive to further upward movement but show some warning signals. In terms of trading volume, capital has been active since breaking through $100K, but on May 21, the 24-hour trading volume was approximately $50.19 billion, a decline of about 18% from the previous day, and there has not been an excessive surge in volume (compared to the highs in 2021, there is no extreme volume). NewsBTC analysts point out that Bitcoin is currently operating at the upper edge of a horizontal parallel channel, facing resistance after multiple touches of the upper rail, with volume still under control and RSI remaining in a reasonable range, indicating potential for further upward momentum. However, investors should be cautious of the aforementioned divergence signals and be alert to the possibility of temporary pullbacks.