Ethereum's Pectra upgrade has not spurred significant network growth, with new user participation falling below YTD averages.
ETH address activity closely tracks price trends, with user churn dropping 8.5% as prices stabilize and retained users dominate.
Ethereum's Realized Cap rose $3.8B post-upgrade, signaling cautious investor optimism amid slower foundational capital inflows.
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade has not immediately increased network usage, with new and returning addresses falling slightly below year-to-date averages. While churn also declined, the short-term data suggests users are reacting more to market price than technical improvements.
On-Chain Retention Mirrors Price Swings
Ethereum’s address activity has closely mirrored ETH price movements since late December 2024. “Since the upgrade, the average new and resurrected addresses are down in comparison to YTD values (–1.8% and –8.4% respectively),” according to a post by Glassnode, which also noted churn dropped by 8.5%. This means fewer users are leaving, but new participation remains sluggish.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1924820024063115424
From December 28 to early January, over 6 million active addresses supported ETH prices above $2,300. Retained users dominated address activity as prices stabilized. By mid-February, the trend reversed, with ETH falling below $2,100 and inactive users rising sharply.
The worst churn spike came in mid-April, with over 6 million addresses inactive as ETH touched $1,800. However, from April 20 onward, ETH rebounded, and so did network participation. By May 13, churn had dropped to –2 million, with activity levels rebalancing across all user categories.
Realized Cap Breaks Downtrend After Upgrade
The shift in user behavior followed a structural change in capital metrics. According to a report by Lucky, Ethereum’s Realized Cap increased by $3.8 billion following the Pectra upgrade, reaching $244.6 billion—a 1.6% rise that reversed a three-month decline. The upgrade, a follow-up to the Merge, marked a significant moment in Ethereum’s scaling roadmap.
From November 15 to late December, ETH’s Realized Cap climbed alongside prices, peaking around $254 billion. Then from February 10 to April 20, it declined steadily to $238 billion, reflecting capital outflows and falling prices. Price gains in early May reignited realized value, lifting it near $248 billion by May 15.
The divergence in Realized Cap and price velocity reflects Ethereum’s investor psychology. While ETH spiked 50% from early to mid-May, Realized Cap moved more slowly, signaling that short-term speculation may be driving the rally more than foundational capital inflows.
CME Futures Chart Shows Key Gaps in Focus
Simultaneously, other market indicators suggest a different trend in technical positioning. Analysts highlight two unfilled gaps in the ETH CME Futures chart that could influence short-term direction. The lower gap between $2,920 and $3,230 has yet to be filled, with current price action consolidating below $2,850.
A second upper gap, spanning $3,460 to $3,820, remains untouched since January. This range coincides with failed attempts to reclaim the $3,400 level, indicating potential future resistance. Ethereum futures reached as low as $1,650 in late April before rebounding to current levels near $2,816.
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