#### 1. Current Price and Technical Analysis

- Price Breakout and Overbought Signals: Bitcoin's current price is $109,000, continuing the recent strong upward trend, but the daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating caution for short-term pullback risks. Previously, on May 21, Bitcoin broke through the historical high of $107,000 with increased trading volume, but in the last 4 hours, there has been a divergence between volume and price, and upward momentum has weakened.

- Key Support and Resistance:

- Support Level: Short-term support to watch is $105,986 (previous breakout resistance turned support) and $101,935 (strong support range).

- Resistance Level: If it holds above $109,000, the next target is the psychological level of $110,000, with potential mid-term targets referencing Fibonacci extension levels of $125,000-$138,000.

#### 2. Market Driving Factors

- Spot buying dominance: The current rise is mainly driven by spot demand. Although the derivatives market has recorded a historical high in open contracts ($34 billion), the funding rate is close to neutral, indicating limited leveraged speculation bubbles and low pullback risks.

- Institutional and Macro Positive Factors:

- Institutional Accumulation: Strategy continues to increase BTC holdings to 576,000 coins, and BlackRock's BUIDL fund has increased its Ethereum ecosystem assets to $3.02 billion, showing long-term institutional confidence.

- Federal Reserve Policy: The market's expectation for a rate cut in June has risen to 45%, and the weakening dollar supports risk assets. Today's focus should be on the statements regarding interest rate policy in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes.

3. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment

- On-chain Activity: The number of active Bitcoin addresses has reached 925,000 (a 6-month high), and exchange balances have decreased to 11.7% of circulation, reflecting an enhanced locking effect of chips.

- Sentiment Indicators: Fear and Greed Index at 71 (Greed), long-short position ratio at 1:1, indicating market optimism but not excessive frenzy.

4. Risks and Short-Term Events

- Pullback Risks: Overbought technical indicators (such as RSI) and volume-price divergence may trigger a technical pullback. If it falls below $105,000, attention should be paid to support around $100,295.

- Key Events:

- Today (May 22): The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may suppress risk appetite if hawkish signals are indicated.

- May 23-24: Bitcoin futures and options contracts will expire, which may exacerbate short-term volatility.

5. Trading Recommendations

- Short-Term Strategy:

- Bulls can hold but need to set stop-loss (suggested range of $101,271-$105,000). If it holds above $109,000, positions can be increased in batches.

- Bears need to be cautious; short-term pullback space may be limited. Pay attention to the breakout situation at $110,000.

- Long-Term Perspective: Macro liquidity easing (global M2 growth of 8.3%) and institutional allocation demand (ETF fund inflows accelerating) support the continuation of the bull market, with mid-term targets still looking at $120,000-$138,000.

---Summary

Bitcoin is currently in the 'high-level consolidation after a strong breakout' phase, with spot buying and institutional funds being the dominant forces, but caution is advised for technical overbought conditions and Federal Reserve policy disturbances. Investors are advised to pay attention to today's meeting minutes and the impact of derivatives expiration, flexibly adjusting positions. Long-term, it is still advisable to buy on dips.