Asian market early session
Recent positive news for cryptocurrencies has been frequent, with Bitcoin once again breaking through the $107,000 level this week, gradually approaching its historical high. On Wednesday, Asian markets showed mixed sentiments, fluctuating narrowly around the $107,000 level, with trading volume not being active and the market maintaining a cautious attitude at this stage high.
Fundamentals
The Bitcoin market has recently welcomed a series of key turning points, displaying unprecedented positive signals from policy levels, institutional participation, and market sentiment. The support rate among the American public for converting the national gold reserves into Bitcoin has reached 80%. This figure not only reflects the recognition of cryptocurrencies by ordinary investors but also suggests that the boundaries between the traditional financial system and digital assets are gradually being broken down.
A public opinion survey conducted by the Satoshi project shows that the younger generation expresses stronger support for the proposal to convert gold reserves into Bitcoin, particularly among the 26 to 30 age group. This age group is poised to be the main controllers of future wealth, and their inclinations could very well determine the direction of global asset allocation in the next decade. Notably, over 400 respondents in the survey even supported allocating 10% to 20% of gold reserves to Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin has gradually evolved from a marginalized speculative tool to a strategic asset worthy of state-level consideration.
The revaluation of the United States' gold reserves provides a theoretical feasibility for the large-scale adoption of Bitcoin. Currently, the U.S. government still uses the gold pricing standard of $42 per ounce established in 1973, which makes the book value of 8,133 tons of gold reserves only $11 billion. However, if revalued at the current market price of $3,200 per ounce, its actual value would soar to over $834 billion. This accounting adjustment could instantly release $820 billion in 'book profits,' a fund sufficient to provide the U.S. government with substantial capital to acquire Bitcoin without increasing the fiscal deficit.
The strong performance of market prices forms a positive feedback loop with the deep participation of institutional investors. Although Bitcoin slightly retraced after breaking through $107,000, it remains firmly above $100,000, and this price resilience is largely thanks to the continuous accumulation by sovereign wealth funds and pension funds.
Data disclosed by Standard Chartered Bank shows that institutions like the Norwegian Government Pension Fund and the Swiss National Bank are indirectly allocating Bitcoin by increasing their holdings in MicroStrategy stocks. This roundabout investment strategy exposes the regulatory or internal compliance obstacles traditional financial institutions face when directly holding cryptocurrencies. The collective increase in exposure equivalent to 1,000 Bitcoins by pension funds in multiple states in the U.S. indicates that institutional investors are adopting more diversified allocation strategies to hedge against risks in traditional financial markets. The gradual follow-up by sovereign funds from countries like Saudi Arabia and France further suggests that Bitcoin is becoming a new option in the diversification of global reserve assets.
Technical Analysis
Currently, there are indeed signs of weakening bullish momentum for Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from the overbought area of 70 to around 65, and it continues to maintain a downward trend. This change clearly reflects that the buying power in the market is gradually weakening. In terms of key price levels, the $105,000 area has become the focal point of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. If the bears continue to apply pressure, leading to further price declines, the psychological integer level of $100,000 below will become an important support test point, and this symbolic price point is crucial for maintaining market confidence. Conversely, if the bulls can regroup and effectively push the price to break above and stabilize over $105,000, there is a possibility to challenge historical highs.
From a temporal analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a critical time window. Since the start of this round of upward momentum in mid-April, it has been running for nearly a month and a half without significant adjustments. According to common volatility patterns in the cryptocurrency market, such a one-sided upward trend usually enters a phase of adjustment after 50-60 trading days. Combined with current technical indicators signaling warnings, investors need to be cautious of potential technical pullbacks in the market. However, it is essential to emphasize that even if a short-term adjustment occurs, as long as the price can hold above the key psychological level of $100,000, the overall upward trend remains intact. For medium to long-term investors, such adjustments may actually provide better entry opportunities.
However, it is essential to remind all traders that the cryptocurrency market carries a high degree of uncertainty, and Bitcoin prices can change at any time.