The total open interest in Bitcoin futures skyrocketed to a historic high on May 20, causing many to ponder how precarious bearish positions currently are. Despite a series of failures to break the $107,000 mark since May 18, leverage volume is already close to the red zone and could act as a trigger for a powerful price spike upwards—possibly even to a new all-time high.
The total open interest in BTC futures has surged to $72 billion—8% higher than a week earlier ($66.6 billion). The main driver of this dynamic is the insatiable appetite of institutions. At the top of this ranking is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which holds $16.9 billion in BTC futures. Just below, but still on the podium, is Binance, with $12 billion in play. Funds, hedge funds, and other major players continue to actively enter the market, not allowing it to cool down for a moment.
$1.2 billion at risk: bearish liquidations between $107K and $108K.
According to CoinGlass, the highest concentration of bearish BTC futures is concentrated in the range of $107,000–$108,000. The volume of potential liquidations here reaches $1.2 billion.
Although predicting a catalyst that could initiate a breakout above $108,000 is quite difficult, there is increasing optimism in the market. It is fueled by concerns about the fiscal state of the USA. Investors are asking a reasonable question: how does Washington plan to cut spending and stimulate the economy at the same time, given the endless dispute between Democrats and Republicans?
Bond yields are rising, the dollar is faltering, and BTC is in focus.
Additional pressure is created by the rapidly rising yield on 20-year U.S. government bonds, which has risen to nearly 5%—up from 4.82% just two weeks ago. Such a movement may push the Federal Reserve back into the role of the last buyer—to stabilize the market. This, in turn, weakens the dollar's position and increases interest in alternative assets, including Bitcoin.
Although gold still confidently holds the crown in the world of safe-haven assets—with a market capitalization of $22 trillion and a solid 24% increase since the beginning of the year—for some investors, it already appears to be a relic of the old era: reliable but boring. For context: the S&P 500 index is valued at $53 trillion, total deposits in U.S. banks and treasury bills (the very M1) amount to $18.6 trillion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently 'only' $2.1 trillion, which is roughly in the same weight category as silver.
Moreover, in several regions, primarily in the USA, ideas are already brewing regarding the redistribution of part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves towards BTC. If even 5% of these reserves are funneled into Bitcoin, it would mean an influx of about $105 billion—or roughly a million BTC at a price of $105,000 each. Such a wave of liquidity is simply impossible to overlook.
Saylor is ahead of everyone.
For context: MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, already owns 576,230 BTC. Few doubt that institutional purchases are the main driver behind a potential breakout above $108,000. Such a movement would trigger liquidations of over-leveraged shorts, which could catapult the price to unexplored heights.
However, macroeconomic uncertainty is in no hurry to disappear. It continues to weigh on the overall market sentiment, reminding all participants: the market loves surprises but does not forgive carelessness.
As Bitcoin hovers around $107,000, those betting against the rise are balancing on a knife's edge. Any spike could lead to their positions being liquidated, which would only strengthen the already brewing bullish momentum.