Bitcoin is on track to reach $500,000 in the next 3.5 years, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered. The main momentum comes from 12 government entities, including U.S. pension funds (California, New York, North Carolina, Kentucky), the National Pension Service of South Korea, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden, France, and Saudi Arabia, increasing their holdings of MicroStrategy (Strategy) shares in the first quarter of 2025.


Momentum from Strategy and U.S. Policy

Strategy, holding approximately 576,000 $BTC , has become a ‘proxy’ for government entities to access Bitcoin indirectly, especially when local regulations do not allow for direct ownership. In Q1, these 12 entities increased their holdings equivalent to 31,000 Bitcoins through Strategy shares, with U.S. pension funds adding an equivalent of 1,000 Bitcoins. Kendrick emphasizes this is a sign of 'increasing structural demand' for Bitcoin.


Predicting $500,000 before President Donald Trump's term ends in early 2029 based on the administration's crypto-friendly policies, such as the repeal of SAB 121 and the proposed strategic Bitcoin reserves. The 13F reports, which require investment managers with over $100 million to disclose their holdings quarterly, are seen by Kendrick as evidence of new institutional participation as the market matures.


Reality and Challenges

However, Bitcoin holdings through ETFs have decreased, with the Wisconsin Investment Fund selling all of its 3,400 Bitcoins. In contrast, Mubadala Investment (Abu Dhabi) increased from 4,700 to 5,000 Bitcoins, supporting the argument of #StandardChartered . Kendrick believes ETFs are not as attractive as Strategy due to regulatory constraints, while Strategy offers a more flexible approach.


Impact and Prospects

With Bitcoin currently at $104,000 (14:29, 21/05/2025), a 379% increase to reach $500,000 is a significant ambition. The $3.4 billion crypto fund inflow last week and the forecast of accumulating $330 billion into Bitcoin by 2029 show potential. In the next 3-5 years, if U.S. policies support and institutions continue to participate, Bitcoin could solidify its position as a reserve asset, especially as pension and sovereign funds increase investments.


Conclusion: Are Opportunities Still Wide Open?

The increase in Strategy holdings by 12 government entities in Q1 2025 is an optimistic sign, bringing Bitcoin closer to the $500,000 target before 2029. Although ETFs are less attractive, indirect strategies through Strategy and potential U.S. policies open up long-term prospects. Investors need to closely monitor to seize opportunities.


Risk Warning: Crypto investment carries high risks due to price volatility and legal uncertainties. Please consider carefully before participating.#anhbacong