Many people always think they can sell in a bull market and buy at the bottom in a bear market.

In fact, whether it's a bull market or a bear market is only recognized in hindsight; during this process, you cannot know.

Based on what you don't know, which means there are no conditions for judgment, the so-called selling in a bull market and buying at the bottom in a bear market concept is therefore unattainable.

Many people say, how could you not know, 100,000 is a bull market, 70,000 is a bear market. Then I ask you, what about 150,000? 200,000? And then it drops to 50,000 or 60,000? What would you say then?

Based on the actions of selling in a bull market and buying at the bottom in a bear market, those who succeed are actually just lucky.

The only two actions you can genuinely control in the crypto market are buying and selling, along with one variable: how much to buy or sell.

The rest is out of your control.

From a retrospective view, for example today, if 100,000 should be sold off. When should you buy at the bottom? You don't know. When it drops to 50,000, then to 200,000, you will feel that 50,000-80,000 is the time to buy. But if it hasn’t dropped, nor risen, at this moment, you will never know.

So talking about selling in a bull market and buying at the bottom in a bear market is a wrong concept. If the concept is wrong, the cognition is wrong; if the cognition is wrong, the behavior is wrong; and if the behavior is wrong, making money becomes very difficult.

A rule in the crypto market that I want to talk about today is rapid surges and slow declines.

Bitcoin rising from 15,000 dollars to 100,000 dollars seems to be a very emotional process, all during an upward trend.

In fact, the times of real surges are only a few days; most of the time, if you look closely, it’s just fluctuating.

After a certain period of fluctuation, there will be a rapid rise. If you are not always on the vehicle, you will not keep up.

It's like when you're in a car, and the vehicle suddenly starts; how could you possibly catch up? Unless you are always in the car.

The transition from the end of a bull market to the beginning of a bear market is harder for people to detect.

For example, it's currently 80,000 dollars. Altcoins have dropped by 70%. In the future, altcoins may continue to drop by 50%.

Why, when it drops, do you see it but not sell? You’d rather be deeply stuck and unable to escape.

This is because the downturn in the crypto market is very slow. The specific situation may be like this: you bought 1 million, it rose to 3 million, and finally fell to 2.7 million. You don't want to sell, thinking about 3 million to sell, but it rebounds to 2.8 million, then continues to fall to 2.5 million. You want to sell at 2.8 million, but it drops directly to 2 million. You simply don't sell, and in the end, 2 million becomes 1 million, then it rises again to 1.5 million, and you can only pretend not to see it. 1 million becomes 500,000, then rises to 700,000, and you're already helpless, thinking it's better to just leave it as it is. In this process, with each rebound, you hope it returns to the original price, but the market is no longer the market of that time.

Why doesn't the market drop quickly? This is because if the major player sells all at once, they won’t sell at a good price. Their volume is too large, so they can only sell slowly. Each rebound is leveraged by various positive news to offload. The occurrence of catastrophic market conditions is actually due to a chain reaction. Such opportunities are money-making opportunities, and after a sharp drop, it won't be long before there will be a rebound. Many bold people will even try to gamble on emotional money. Therefore, during a drop, it is very torturous, especially for altcoins. If there is a direct panic sell-off, you might really be scared and cut losses. However, in fact, it rarely drops sharply; it’s always a fluctuation of drop and rise. For example, if the price is 10, and six months later you look, it suddenly becomes 1, dropping by 90%. And during this process, it seems like something is blocking your eyes, and you have no idea.

In fact, you just haven't undergone deliberate training, so your perception of the trend of price decline is not obvious. This is the fundamental reason why newcomers cannot make money in the first cycle.

In the second cycle, if you still mix with altcoins, you have gained experience, and after selling altcoins a few times, you have become completely accustomed to cutting your losses. Once the market begins to decline abnormally, you will be very alert. For example, if you made 10 times profit and it drops to 7 times profit, you will leave immediately; you won’t be reluctant to think about how much more you should earn.

This cognitive process: when others tell you a few times, it’s not as good as you using your own money to cut losses once. After you cut it, you’ll feel the pain the first time, become numb the second time, be calm the third time, and feel very relaxed the fourth time. Then you've made it; if you earn from any altcoin, later when you want to numb yourself, it’s simply impossible, and you will immediately cut losses and exit.

I see many people who earn and are unwilling to sell, waiting for a drop to break even. Selling coins feels as painful as selling a son. This is all due to their lack of deliberate training.

The market operates according to human nature; in fact, it is all about human nature. People desire rapid increases, so the market will inadvertently rise rapidly. People want slow declines, want rebounds, and want to come back, so it declines slowly.

However, those who see through human nature are calm in the face of rapid increases and alert in the face of slow declines. At the first sign of trouble, they have already left.

Those left are just the ones holding the bag, and they still hope that the next wave of their altcoins will rise again, which is already impossible.

The market has already completed a transfer of wealth through a wave of trends. Moreover, this process is very quiet. Only those who have been deliberately trained can feel it and earn the money from the bubbles.


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