Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached a high of $106,704 during trading, before slightly retreating. As of the time of writing, the asset is trading at $104,686, having increased by only 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Despite the slight pullback, BTC remains within 3.8% of the historical high of $109,000 set in January, indicating that bullish momentum remains largely unchanged.
Given this price performance, data suggest that BTC's price movements are still supported by strategic accumulation patterns rather than short-term speculation. The return of large withdrawals from centralized exchanges like Binance and Kraken may be one of the reasons for the reduced selling pressure.
Foreign exchange outflows and the MVRV ratio support the accumulation theory.
Amr Taha, a contributor to the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlighted a significant shift in investor behavior. According to Taha's latest analysis, over 3,090 BTC (valued at approximately $325 million) were withdrawn from Binance in a single day. Previously, Binance saw withdrawals of 76,000 ETH, and Kraken also withdrew 170,000 ETH.
These trends indicate that investors are increasingly moving assets off exchanges, a behavior typically associated with long-term holding strategies. Taha pointed out that this trend aligns with the overall development trends in the industry, such as Circle's announced IPO plans and acquisition negotiations involving Coinbase and Ripple.
Taha's analysis also emphasizes the importance of MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) in measuring market sentiment. Currently, the MVRV stands at 2.33, still below the historical threshold of 2.75 that has previously triggered significant corrections.
The last time the MVRV broke this level, it coincided with a prolonged five-month slump. In contrast, the current level suggests that Bitcoin has not yet entered overheated territory, potentially providing room for the market to rise before a large-scale profit-taking occurs.
The Bitcoin market structure indicates weakening sell pressure.
Taha concluded that driven by reduced foreign exchange reserves and a neutral MVRV index, the market remains in an accumulation phase. The decrease in BTC supply held by exchanges reduces the risk of large-scale sell-offs, especially as buyer demand remains stable. Unless there is an unexpected external shock, this dynamic may help maintain the current upward trend.
Additionally, the decline in foreign exchange balances and the MVRV ratio remaining below critical levels together depict that the market has not reached a euphoric excess stage. Instead, Taha states that these conditions suggest investors are maintaining a cautiously optimistic attitude, with many choosing to hold rather than liquidate their assets.
The analyst added that the gradual clearing of exchange balances supports the view that institutions and large retail participants are still preparing for future rises. If the MVRV ratio climbs to the historical trigger point of 2.75, this sentiment may begin to shift, but currently, on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin's rise may still have room for growth.
