Title:

Bitcoin Falters Near Record, but 'Realized Price' Analysis Suggests Optimistic Outlook

Tracking average exchange withdrawal prices reveals signs of capitulation and a shift toward recovery.

By James Van Straten

Updated May 20, 2025, 11:07 p.m.

Published May 20, 2025, 9:20 p.m

What to know:

The so-called realized price in 2025 is $BTC 93,266 and with bitcoin trading at $105,000, average investors are currently up 12%, indicating renewed profitability.

Historical patterns show that price dips below realized cost basis often align with market lows, as seen during the January 2024 post-ETF tumble and the August 2024 plunge.

Record highs — be it $20,000 in 2017, $BTC 69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year — are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don't do a great job of describing price action.

Tracking the "realized price," or the average price at which bitcoin

$BTC 107,441.96

is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a market-wide cost basis is a more valuable tool for gauging investor profitability and potential inflection points in market sentiment.

The charts (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market starting Jan. 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025.

The average realized price for the 2025 so far is $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, these investors are up approximately 12% on average.