May 21 Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Analysis
1. Bitcoin broke through $107,000 again this morning, reaching a high of $107,320, and then entered a high-level consolidation. It is currently trading around $106,500. Technical analysis shows frequent short-term overbought signals, indicating a structural consolidation phase. Attention needs to be paid to the breakout of key support levels ($105,300-$105,500) and resistance levels ($107,300-$107,800).
The 15-minute to hourly charts show that the price has formed resistance near $107,000, with multiple recent attempts to break through followed by pullbacks, forming a "spike-retrace-oscillate" box pattern. A volume breakout of $107,320 may trigger a technical rise, while a break below $105,300 may trigger a rapid pullback.
2. Bitcoin futures open interest hit a new all-time high ($72 billion), with CME and Binance dominating the holdings, indicating significant institutional participation. There is approximately $1.2 billion in short liquidation risk in the $107,000-$108,000 range, and a breakout may trigger a liquidity siphon effect, pushing prices higher.
3. The MACD momentum column is shortening, and the DIF and DEA lines are converging, indicating weakening upward momentum. The RSI (47.75) is in a neutral-to-weak range and may rebound after correcting the overbought condition. The KDJ indicator shows that the J value is oversold, and a turnaround may trigger a technical rebound.
- MA5, MA10, and MA20 remain in a bullish arrangement, but MA5 is turning horizontally, indicating a slowdown in the short-term pace. It is necessary to wait for MA10 to move up to provide support.
Future Outlook and Risk Warnings
- If the price stabilizes above the $105,300 support and breaks through $107,320, it may challenge $108,000 or even $110,000, entering a new round of trend initiation.
- If $105,300 is lost, it may quickly fall to $104,000 or lower, forming a "bull trap" pattern. In addition, high-leverage holdings in futures may exacerbate short-term fluctuations.
- The delayed effects of halving, deepening institutionalization (such as MicroStrategy holding 576,000 BTC), and Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute as "digital gold" still support the long-term bullish logic.
Summary
Today, Bitcoin is in a high-level consolidation phase. Technically, attention needs to be paid to the breakout direction of the $107,300 resistance and $105,300 support. Funding and policy benefits provide short-term upward momentum, but the risk of pullback in the high-leverage market needs to be guarded against. In the long run, the macro environment and institutional allocation needs still provide value support for Bitcoin.
