Can Ethereum return to the midpoint of the Gaussian channel?
On May 20, Ethereum experienced a significant trend shift while trying to return to the two-week Gaussian channel midpoint. The Gaussian channel is a technical indicator used to identify price trends. The Gaussian channel or normal distribution channel depicts price trends within a dynamic range, adapting to market fluctuations.
Historically, when ETH breaks through this midpoint, it usually experiences a significant rebound. In 2023, ETH surged 93% after a similar crossover, reaching $4,000; while in 2020, ETH skyrocketed 1,820%, triggering a massive rebound in altcoins.
In contrast, a similar setup in August 2022 led to a failure during the market correction period, highlighting the risks of relying solely on this indicator.
Similarly, cryptocurrency trader Merlijn pointed out that a golden cross has emerged between the 50-day moving average (SMA) and the 200-day moving average (SMA), which may further strengthen ETH's impending breakout momentum.
The approval of stablecoins is certainly bringing absolute benefits to the market:
Focus on ETH: The dual beneficiary of stablecoins and RWA
Over 50% of global USD stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) are issued based on the Ethereum ERC-20 protocol.
Ethereum, as the leading public chain balancing decentralization and security, will attract a massive influx of compliant funds. Currently, over 90% of the stablecoins issued by BlackRock are still based on Ethereum.
Preferred public chain for RWA
As of now, the global RWA market has locked in a value of $22 billion, with over 70% of projects choosing Ethereum as the underlying public chain.
After the bill passes, the issuance of compliant RWA will receive more explicit legal support, further promoting ETH's network effect. Furthermore, Ethereum has a well-established DeFi infrastructure and long-term institutional relationships.
The stablecoin track:
ENA: Project market capitalization of $2.1 billion, issued stablecoin Usde market capitalization of $4.99 billion, supported by BlackRock.
In conclusion:
I believe Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise to the $150,000 - $200,000 range. I expect this situation to occur in the summer or early third quarter of this year, after which funds will begin to rotate into various altcoins. The altcoin market is unlikely to replicate the 2021 phenomenon of all coins surging 100 times. The market will witness new narrative hotspots, and some coins may rise dramatically, but there are reasons why the long-term stagnant dinosaur coins in your portfolio are not rising. Many projects have overvalued, low circulation, lack real users and revenue, and are merely relying on exchange listings for speculation. Now their prices have dropped by 95%, and I don't believe they will perform well in the next cycle.
I believe ETH has more upside potential, although it is currently under scrutiny—everyone thinks it is underperforming, and the development team has made repeated mistakes. However, the reality is it still maintains the highest on-chain locked value (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Indeed, despite its price performance being unsatisfactory since 2020. SOL has clearly performed well, but if I had to allocate new fiat funds now, I believe ETH's increase may outpace SOL in the upcoming bull market over the next 18-24 months.
First-tier projects are launching:
Monad (MON) is a high-performance first-layer blockchain built for decentralized application development, aiming to provide higher throughput, scalability, and lower costs for decentralized applications (dApps).
The mission is to accelerate the power of decentralization by building blockchains that are 100 times to 1000 times faster than the closest competitors, alleviating the bottlenecks of existing blockchains and enabling more complex applications and broader adoption.
0 G, short for Zero Gravity, is a leading Web3 infrastructure provider that is building a leading modular AI blockchain, creating solutions to implement on-chain AI applications in the Web3 ecosystem. In general, it's modular, 7A1, faster speeds, and lower costs. In 2024, 0G also reached strategic partnerships with over 100 industry-leading partners globally, covering various fields such as gaming, AI, and DePIN.
PIN AI (PIN) is an open-source personal AI platform that integrates open-source artificial intelligence and blockchain technology to open up new fields of personal digital experience, protecting data ownership and privacy. The platform places humanity at the center of the AI economy, providing everyone with personalized AI and the ability to reclaim data. With PIN AI, users can retain the value of their data and AI interactions, receiving services that align with their unique preferences in return.
The primary market is the 'golden key' to discovering hundred-fold coins, but it is not infallible. The market is filled with uncertainties, and the significance of research and investment lies in helping us make more rational decisions rather than blindly chasing the myth of wealth. By continuously learning and practicing, enhancing your research and investment capabilities, you can gain an edge in the crypto market and discover truly valuable projects. Hundred-fold coins are not an unattainable dream, but a goal that can be reached through solid project research. Every in-depth study and analysis lays the foundation for future wealth accumulation. Don't be deceived by short-term market fluctuations, but focus on the long-term value and development potential of the project.
