Binance Alpha has now become a well-orchestrated plan.
1/ For the project parties, although Alpha, Wallet TGE, HoldersDrop, and Launchpool need to distribute a large amount of tokens, it is still more cost-effective than other options. Joining Alpha has a relatively high lower limit and can somewhat provide an explanation for stakeholders. Therefore, while the project parties claim they do not want it, their actions are quite honest.
Moreover, the low market cap opening, trading competitions, and the Alpha-contract-spot path still leave some room for growth, with proactive market makers having at least one opportunity.
2/ For BNB holders, it seems that benefits have decreased, as Launchpool/HoldersDrop have been diverted. However, considering 1) the macro environment indeed cannot support the buying pressure for large BNB holders to take over Launchpool, and 2) occasional big lotteries, such as Adventure Island, can still ensure a double-digit annualized dividend rate.
The most important point in this well-orchestrated plan is that Alpha will bring a large amount of [BNB holding] and [near destruction]. Near destruction is reflected in the LP pool. BNBChain Memecoin has basically cooled down, but each Alpha will at least lock hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars worth of tokens into the pool. If there are 100 tokens locked in a year, that amounts to 100 million dollars. Considering the rise in token price and other on-chain projects, this number could be even higher.
Another aspect is the Alpha points system. The current version of the points system points to one outcome: you must score more than 15 points daily to see results, and you can join at any time. Bn only needs to adjust the release frequency and points threshold, ensuring that single-session earnings do not decay by reducing user participation frequency.
Conservatively estimated, based on a 50 million dollar FDV * 1% total share / 100u per person = 5000 people, meaning a single event can have 5000 participants.
In an extreme case, if participants join once every 15 days, the maximum capacity for Alpha activities is 75,000 people. Based on 50,000 people * 3 BNB = 100 million dollars in net BNB holding demand, in addition, the increase in the number of projects, market cap growth, and further increase in thresholds will further raise this value.
3/ For exchanges, it is even clearer: they gain users, reputation, on-chain trading volume, and CEX trading volume, solving the problem of high market cap openings.
So who lost?
Second-tier exchanges lost, especially those that crashed data and swallowed project party activity tokens.
Even now, they continue to curse the rules as foolish, rather than trying to score full points of 17-20 on the first day of the new rules.