1) Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and US stocks fell last night, while BTC showed an upward trend, which is very strange!

2) US Treasury bonds with a 30-year term were heavily sold off, causing yields to skyrocket.

3) Yields on Japanese government bonds with 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year terms rose sharply. As the world's third-largest economy and a major bond market, pressure on Japan's bond market could lead to a rise in global borrowing costs.

4) The US House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, meaning the US government will need to increase its debt.

In light of the current situation in the US, either tax cuts will shrink, or tariffs will increase, with a high probability of increased tariffs. Looking at the above four points together, the long-term outlook is definitely a potential risk and dangerous situation. The mines are laid here, waiting for the fuse to come out, and we’ll see when they explode. (Expected within three months, possibly before interest rate cuts)

From a long-term perspective: this time, it is highly likely that a peak will be reached near 118,000 (expected to be completed by mid-June), followed by a significant drop to around 90,000, and then when it takes off again, it will aim for 150,000.

As for BTC, a drop can be recovered, which is a strong breakout signal (yesterday I thought Moody's rating would also impact BTC; the fluctuations transmitted from the US stock market were minimal, and I can only say that the short-term judgment was incorrect, but it does not mean there is no long-term impact, as I mentioned above.)