Bitcoin (BTC) Current Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy

1. Current Price and Market Trend

Current BTC Price: Approximately $105,614 (OKX data), 24-hour increase of 0.75%, intraday fluctuation range of $103,100-$106,200

Key Resistance Level: $106,600 (31,000 BTC supply cluster, forming in December 2024)

Short-term Trend: If it breaks through $106,600, it may accelerate to $110,000; if it encounters resistance and falls back, it may retrace to the support range of $103,000-$102,000.

2. Technical Indicators Analysis

RSI (Daily): 68 (close to overbought but still has room to rise)

MACD: Four-hour golden cross, but daily level has top divergence risk, caution is needed for a pullback.

Trading Volume: Recent mild increase, but if it breaks through $106,600, we need to observe if it is accompanied by significant volume increase.

On-chain Data: Large holders (100-10,000 BTC) continue to accumulate, cumulative score reaches 0.85-0.9, indicating institutional bullishness.

3. Key Support and Resistance

Support Levels:

$103,000 (short-term pullback support)

$102,500 (liquidity has been absorbed, strong support)

$101,000 (psychological level + technical support)

Resistance Levels:

$106,600 (key supply area)

$107,000 (if broken, may accelerate upward)

$110,000 (next psychological level)

4. Market Sentiment and Catalysts

Institutional Fund Inflow: Strategy recently increased holdings by 7,390 BTC (average price $103,498), showing institutional confidence.

Regulatory Favor: US SEC shifts to support innovation, which may promote the development of the crypto market.

Macroeconomic Factors: Enhanced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, favorable for risk assets (including BTC).

Bitcoin and Gold Correlation: Decreased to -0.54 (30-day data), indicating BTC's independent trend.

5. Trading Strategy Recommendations

Breakout Buy:

Entry: Stabilize above $106,600 for 4 hours.

Target: $110,000.

Stop Loss: Below $105,000.

Pullback Buy:

Entry Range: $103,000-$102,500

Target: $106,000-$110,000

Stop Loss: Below $100,000

High Waiting:

If it does not break through $106,600, wait for clearer signals.

Conclusion: Today's BTC trend leans towards a volatile upward bias, but caution is needed for the $106,600 resistance and short-term pullback risks. Traders should pay attention to key support/resistance levels and adjust strategies according to changes in trading volume.

BTC

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