Last night, after the US stock market opened, there was a slight pullback, and Bitcoin initially fluctuated little, maintaining a narrow range around $103,000. However, during the night, Bitcoin launched a strong attack, reaching a peak of around $105,768. From the chip distribution data, about 2.45 million Bitcoins are concentrated in the range of $93,000 to $98,000, which is currently the largest chip accumulation zone in the market, forming an important support area.
In the short term, $102,000 is a support level, and if it breaks, we need to see if the range of $93,000 to $98,000 can stabilize the price.
Fortunately, the short-term uncertainty of Bitcoin has not stopped long-term buyers from increasing their holdings. Strategy company (formerly MicroStrategy) announced the purchase of 7,390 Bitcoins at an average price of about $103,500, bringing its total holdings to 576,230 Bitcoins.
After the market changes, how will it move? Two scenarios, both are scythe harvesting leeks!
Many people are asking what the market will do next, whether it will go up or crash down. To be honest, predicting direction is easily influenced by subjective emotions. However, Lao Tan has boldly outlined two extreme possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Rapid decline
If Bitcoin breaks below the key support of $98,000, it may directly enter a continuous downward mode, completely trapping the funds that chased the high positions.
Scenario 2: False breakout and real decline
The market first broke above $110,000, creating a short squeeze scenario, triggering a lot of short liquidations, then suddenly reversed, performing a deep pullback of over $10,000, impacting the bullish defense line. After that, it may enter a long period of consolidation, retreating to around $80,000, waiting for the Federal Reserve to signal a rate cut, then disguising the start of a new bull market, rising above $150,000, and finally having the main force distribute chips at a high position, leading the market into a selling phase again.
Overall, although these two trends are extreme scenarios, they are not impossible in the highly volatile crypto market. We need to stay vigilant and not be misled by short-term fluctuations.
This is how to play during the consolidation period! Before the breakout, everyone should follow what Guan Guan said:
Short above $104,000: short when it rebounds to a high position, making money on the pullback.
After a drop of 2000 points, do a rebound: buy altcoins at the support level, use 20x leverage to double, and don't get too attached!
Don't touch Bitcoin, focus on altcoins: Bitcoin has small fluctuations, altcoins have high elasticity, making short-term arbitrage more profitable.
Remember, the current market is a situation of mutual destruction for longs and shorts, institutions and whales cutting each other; we retail investors shouldn't become the ones picking up the pieces! Before the market has a clear direction, manage your position well, take profits when you see them, and don't be greedy chasing highs—preserving principal allows you to pick up cheap chips after the market changes!
Today's performance
With luck, I caught a short-term bounce, entering at the lowest point before the surge; I didn't check at the peak, which delayed my profit, earning half less. If luck is good with altcoins, it's really much more rewarding than Bitcoin; for my first trade, I entered half the position and set the stop loss at 0.244, then felt the position was small, so I doubled on the second trade, setting the stop loss at 0.255, so even if the second trade gets stopped out, it won't hurt that much.
Due to the position being hit, I saw a big spike on the chart and exited first; earning something is better than nothing. The correct approach would indeed be to close half and let the rest ride at the original price, but since my overall strategy is bearish, going long is just speculation, so I will look for another opportunity to see if I can buy back.
Finally, everyone don't forget to follow, let's achieve financial freedom together in this bull market, okay!
