Author: Techub Selected Translation
Written by: Louie
Translation: Yangz, Techub News
Those who know me understand that I've always been a staunch supporter of Solana (sometimes to the point of being a headache). This article aims to articulate my core views on Solana and the future direction I believe this ecosystem will take.
In 2021, Solana was defined by speed. In 2022, it sought self-redemption. By 2024, it was shaping a culture. However, as the industry cycle deepens, a sharp question lingers around the Solana ecosystem: Is this chain merely a Memecoin casino wrapped in a gorgeous exterior?
Critics are not entirely wrong. From BONK to WIF, Memecoins have indeed dominated public perception, garnering the fervent attention of users, traders, and KOLs. It is easy to confuse short-term noise with long-term value, but history tells us that ecological evolution is never a straight path. What appears to be a restless bubble today may be laying the foundation for future asset distribution, innovative experiments, and practical applications.
So, where is Solana headed in the next five years?
From throughput to application scenarios.
Solana's architecture focuses on throughput, with its core proposition being to serve as a global state machine, providing low-cost block space and processing transactions in parallel. Solana not only wants to be fast enough to keep up with the internet but also aims to become its backend infrastructure.
While such designs have indeed spawned the viral spread of Memecoins and the prosperity of on-chain perpetual contracts, the real test lies in whether the same infrastructure can support more enduring value. Currently, we are seeing some positive signs.
In the DePIN track, Helium and Hivemapper are quietly anchoring physical infrastructure within the on-chain collaborative system, bringing real-world assets into the real-time economic system.
Solana is becoming the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency innovation. Systems based on intelligent agents (robots autonomously interacting with smart contracts/markets/users) have found a natural fit on Solana. Even the Virtuals protocol, born out of Base, has expanded to Solana, attracted by Solana's low latency, composability, and liquidity advantages.
NFT protocols are evolving from various monkey JPEGs into on-chain passes, not only as certificates of games/identity/community but also as keys to unlock experiences.
Solana's speed benefits not only the creation of casinos but also coordination. It enables humanized rather than mechanized feedback loops, including instant settlement transactions, smooth user experiences, and applications that blur the boundaries between Web2 user experiences and Web3 sovereignty.
In this rapidly evolving era, the success of blockchain lies not only in decentralization but also in its ability to keep pace with the times. Solana's speed and low-cost advantages benefit not just the creation of casinos but also support complex collaboration, consumer-grade experiences, and real-time markets as a frictionless infrastructure.
Market layout for billions of users.
Ethereum has achieved a 'product-market fit' with capital, while Solana is aiming for cultural identity. This difference is crucial. A capital-prioritized ecosystem serves institutions and DAOs, which have a long-term vision, ample funding, and prefer composable financial tools. In contrast, a culture-prioritized ecosystem is built for ordinary people. It seeks zero-friction user guidance, expressive tools, and moments of viral spread. The former expands through governance frameworks, while the latter achieves scale through memes, creators, and mobile-native applications.
The most commonly used applications on Solana (like Phantom, Tensor, Jupiter) are infused with the qualities of Web2 consumer products, and this is no accident. This is not simple brand packaging but a deep strategic choice. As the next generation of a billion users comes from mobile, gaming, and social applications rather than trading terminals or DeFi panels, Solana's path is clear: actively adapt to user habits rather than forcing users to adapt to technology. In the next five years, this strategy will crystallize into a new user service stack.
Mobile-first experiences will transition from an add-on to a basic requirement.
Protocols like Dialect will become the neural connections for on-chain identity.
The chain abstraction layer will completely hide the technical backend, and users may not even realize they are using Solana.
Solana's true advantage lies not just in technical efficiency but in cultural penetration. It understands that in the long run, large-scale adoption does not win through white papers and token economics, but through those intuitive and even fun touchpoints. In other words: the important thing is not to make Solana ubiquitous, but to make Solana easily accessible.
Casinos are characteristics, not flaws.
Let’s face the reality: Speculation has always been the most effective market entry strategy in cryptocurrency. Memecoins may be loud and showy, but they are unmatched attention engines—no user acquisition funnel or funding program can match their narrative expansion power. Whether you agree or not, Solana's Memecoin wave is driving comprehensive growth in trading volume, wallet creation, developer interest, and cultural influence. All this occurs without the need for airdrops, rebates, or token incentives. It is organic liquidity, not mercenary capital flow. It may be noisy, but it is incredibly real.
Casinos bring liquidity, and liquidity breeds vitality. The real distinction lies not in attracting gamblers but in retaining them. Speculation is merely a stepping stone; the world beyond the door is where real opportunities lie.
Speculation is inevitable, but the way the ecosystem handles it will determine whether it becomes a Ponzi playground or an economic sandbox. Solana does not try to deny the existence of speculation but quietly lays tracks to guide this energy toward a more enduring direction. Ultimately, the key is not to resist the casino but to transcend its limitations.
Solana's strategic moat.
Solana's true advantage lies not just in technology but in its 'coordination ability'. In a blockchain industry obsessed with modularity and extreme ideological stances, Solana's monolithic architecture is often dismissed as a design compromise. But perhaps its real strength has nothing to do with architecture, but rather with 'operational efficiency'?
The Solana Foundation has a clear goal, setting long-term priorities and funding research and development. It does not chase trends but defines the pace. Whether allocating funds for mobile-first experiences, optimizing validator incentives, or subsidizing RPC service providers and client diversity, the foundation operates more like a venture studio than a think tank.
This clear sense of mission and calm pace of advancement allow the entire ecosystem to develop strategically rather than fall into passive chaos. In an industry where most L1 teams are either absent or overly interventionist, the Solana Foundation has found a rare balance: supporting without suffocating.
Solana's ecological narrative may not be perfect but is effective. It lacks the refined brand control of Ethereum and the ideological purity of Bitcoin, but it possesses 'momentum'. What is being constructed shows a kind of spontaneous coordination: fast applications, low user experience costs, and global user proliferation. Whether in DeFi, DePIN, gaming, or AI, the commonality is 'mass availability'. You may not agree with the noise, but the signal that cannot be ignored is: Solana is built for end users, not for niche governance token holders.
Moreover, developers are producing efficiently. The early development experience on Solana was known for its rigor, supporting only Rust, with a lack of tools and difficulty in getting started. However, these disadvantages are changing rapidly. Now they have more comprehensive documentation, TypeScript SDK, and growth funding than ever before.
This is a credible flywheel effect: better tools → more developers → better applications → more users → more capital → and so on. This advantage cannot be forked. The ability to coordinate will create a compound effect, and five years from now, Solana may become the preferred chain for real-time, consumer-grade applications—not because it wins every narrative war, but because it wins every product demonstration.
Data does not lie.
Critics may scoff at Solana's Memecoin frenzy, but the data reveals a different picture. Let us analyze some key metrics through Blockworks' Solana data dashboard.
The fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 represent the strongest performance period in Solana's history. Total on-chain application revenue (or chain GDP) grew by 321% quarter-on-quarter, reaching $825 million by the end of 2024. Furthermore, this momentum continued into the new year, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $819 million. Just in January alone, $551 million was contributed, largely due to the controversial issuance of TRUMP. In a horizontal comparison, Solana's quarterly income has already surpassed the performance of previous entire years. This indicates that the protocol layer has achieved 'product-market fit'. Solana not only facilitates transactions but also captures value from them, marking its economic maturity. Rapid growth in protocol-level GDP will trigger secondary effects such as investor confidence, developer migration, and long-term sustainability.
Just a year ago, the DeFi track of the Solana ecosystem was seen as a ghost town. Now it has become a capital hub. As of the writing of this article, the total value locked (TVL) in Solana's DeFi ecosystem reached $9.6 billion, just 19% lower than the peak in January 2025. After the LIBRA incident, many had declared the death sentence for this chain. But liquidity is steadily returning, and the fundamentals continue to strengthen.
It is worth noting that this capital is not passively flowing in a liquidity pool but is active capital, moving between perpetual contract markets, decentralized exchanges, and dynamic vaults. This growth marks two major turning points:
Rebuilding Institutional Confidence: Such a scale of TVL indicates that large whales, consortiums, and funds are making substantial deployments.
Infrastructure Resilience: An architecture that has not been tested in real combat cannot support such a level of capital. Solana's validator network, client improvements, and composability ultimately merge into a stable ecosystem robust enough to support serious DeFi development.
All of this relies not on luck but on reconstruction and repetition.
Turning the tide: Solana's poised takeoff.
Despite experiencing headwinds, multiple emerging forces are driving the ecosystem into an acceleration track.
Awakening of Institutional Demand: With speed advantages and solid fundamentals, Solana has quietly become a favorite among institutions. It is widely regarded as the strongest candidate for the next batch of cryptocurrency spot ETFs in the U.S. Applications from institutions like VanEck, Bitwise, Canary, and Grayscale are under review, with potential approval as early as October 2025. Canada has taken the lead, launching multiple Solana spot ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange in April 2025, with net inflows exceeding $86 million in the first week. Additionally, institutional enthusiasm is spreading to other areas. Inspired by (Micro)Strategy's Bitcoin treasury strategy, SOL Strategies announced the establishment of a $500 million convertible note financing mechanism aimed at creating investment tools focused on Solana. Although not as large as Saylor's 'war chest', this initiative signals a growing market demand for the asset.
Regulatory Dawn: The cryptocurrency industry is welcoming the most favorable policy environment in history. The regulatory framework in the U.S. is gradually clarifying, paving the way for major catalysts like the (Digital Asset Strategic Reserve) (including Solana), further consolidating the legitimacy of this asset class. This shift will accelerate development cycles and boost investor confidence.
Performance Breakthrough Imminent: The Firedancer mainnet is expected to launch later this year, potentially becoming a milestone in Solana's evolutionary history. This system, built from scratch by Jump Crypto, aims to elevate Solana, already a speed champion, to new heights—with exponential increases in throughput, enhanced network reliability, and unlocked new scenarios for high-frequency trading. More importantly, it introduces a second independent validator client, a crucial step toward true decentralization. If delivered on schedule, Firedancer will not only make Solana faster but also stronger.
Summary: Beyond the casinos, the future has arrived.
Casinos will always exist on Solana, but casinos do not stifle innovation; they nourish it. These bustling places serve functions of user education and stress-testing infrastructure, and they cultivate a fertile soil for liquidity. Memecoins, fervent believers, yield hunters—they are all part of Solana's evolutionary journey, not mere distractions from the main line.
In the next five years, what Solana needs to do is not to shed this face but to transcend it. If it can establish a system that rewards both short-term speculation and incentivizes long-term building on the celebration, it has the opportunity to become a public chain that not only expands transaction volume but also expands trust. Amid all the noise, building has never ceased. Firedancer is about to arrive, real-world applications are awakening, and capital is completing its return loop. As long as the cultural gene does not fade, Solana will ultimately be the fastest blockchain in the crypto world and the chain that laughs last. As Pantera Capital's general partner Cosmo Jiang and investment analyst Eric Wallach said at the beginning of the year, 'Even if innovation does not originate from Solana, it will ultimately reach Solana.'
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