Why might SOL drop to $150 first?
Short-term overbought pullback demand.
Recently, SOL quickly rose from $140 to $161, with the 4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) entering the overbought zone (>70), indicating short-term technical pullback pressure.
Fibonacci retracement shows that the 38.2% retracement level ($155) and the 50% retracement level ($150) are reasonable pullback targets.
Testing key support levels.
$150 is an important support level for SOL in the past 3 months, having rebounded multiple times at this level.
On-chain data shows that there are a large number of buy orders piled up in the $150-155 range, indicating market recognition of the strength of this support.
Bears exert short-term pressure.
Perpetual contract funding rate turns positive, leading some short-term bulls to take profits, resulting in price pressure.
If BTC undergoes a short-term adjustment, SOL may follow and test the $150 support.
Why can it rebound to $175 after a pullback?
Technical analysis: W-bottom pattern confirmed.
If SOL stabilizes after testing $150, it will form a 'W double bottom' structure, with strong bullish signals from a technical perspective.
After breaking the $165 neckline, the theoretical target can be seen in the $175-180 range.
On-chain data: Whales continue to accumulate.
In the past week, addresses holding over 100,000 SOL increased their holdings by about 5 million coins, indicating that large funds are optimistic about the future market.
The inventory of SOL on exchanges has dropped to a yearly low, reducing selling pressure and favoring a rebound.
Market sentiment and fund rotation.
Recent rotation of funds in altcoins, with SOL as a leading high liquidity public chain, is likely to attract capital back.
If BTC stabilizes, SOL is expected to see a catch-up rally, targeting $175.
For specific buy and sell points, you can pay attention to Jinxin and refer to my profile.
