Why might SOL first drop to $150?
Short-term demand for a pullback from overbought conditions.
SOL has recently surged from $140 to $161 quickly, and the 4-hour RSI has entered the overbought zone (>70), indicating potential technical pullback pressure in the short term.
Fibonacci retracement shows that the 38.2% retracement level ($155) and the 50% retracement level ($150) are reasonable pullback targets.
Key support level.
$150 is an important support level for SOL in the past 6 months, having rebounded multiple times at this position.
On-chain data shows that there are a large number of buy orders accumulated in the $150-155 range, indicating market recognition of this support strength.
Bears are applying short-term pressure.
The perpetual contract funding rate has turned positive, and some short-term bulls have taken profits, leading to price pressure.
If BTC undergoes a short-term adjustment, SOL may follow and test the support at $150.
Why can it rebound to $175 after the pullback?
Technical aspect: Confirmation of W bottom pattern.
If SOL stabilizes after a pullback to $150, it will form a 'W double bottom' structure, with strong bullish signals from a technical perspective.
After breaking through the neckline at $165, the theoretical target can be seen in the $175-180 range.
On-chain data: Whales continue to accumulate.
In the past week, addresses holding over 100,000 SOL have accumulated about 5 million coins, indicating that large funds are optimistic about the future.
The supply of SOL on exchanges has dropped to a year-to-date low, reducing selling pressure, which is favorable for a rebound.
Market sentiment and capital rotation.
Recently, funds have been rotating into altcoins, and as a leading high liquidity public chain, SOL is likely to attract capital back.
If BTC stabilizes, SOL is expected to see a rebound with a target of $175.
Specific buy and sell points can be monitored through Jin Xin; pay attention to my profile link.
