Today is May 19, 2025, Bitcoin surged past $107,000 last night, just $2,000 away from its all-time high.
Four years ago today, due to the domestic cryptocurrency ban, the market crashed, Bitcoin fell from $50,000 to nearly $30,000, Ethereum plummeted 40% in one day, and altcoins bled heavily.
Four years later, looking at the prices of those altcoins back then compared to their current performance, it’s hard not to feel a surge of emotions.
EOS was $4.3 back then, now it's only $0.76.
ETC fell from $42 to $17.63.
FIL was once $61, now only $2.75.
ICP fell from $89 to $5.08.
…
I don't know how everyone feels, but I increasingly feel that altcoins are working for Bitcoin. Various reasons have led to fewer Bitcoins in the hands of locals, while altcoins have increased, ultimately being harvested wave after wave by Wall Street.
Bitcoin has broken through the $100,000 barrier, looking back at these altcoins, it really feels like playing in the crypto space is getting harder and harder.
If Bitcoin is still in a low bear market, no matter how you buy, it's an opportunity with significantly lower risk.
But the situation is different now; Bitcoin has been consolidating at high levels, and once it pulls back, altcoins often follow. In this case, the risk of buying altcoins is much greater than when Bitcoin is at a low.
So recently I started doing some swing contracts with mainstream coins, mainly Litecoin and Ethereum. I will only buy altcoins in moderation after a significant pullback in Bitcoin.
I play contracts not as a gambler; I don't amplify stop losses and positions like Liang Xi, but rather control my position and stay flexible. The biggest benefit of contracts is flexibility; buying and selling can be executed immediately. A few days ago, I was still going long, but last night I saw the price spike and decisively seized two shorting opportunities.
Let's discuss how to trade altcoins in the future:
In the future, all altcoins will pump during high-risk periods; there won't be any opportunities to buy altcoins safely like in 2021 or during the low periods of 2023-2024.
The so-called risk period is when both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are at high levels, combined with a volatile environment like Trump's, leading to an altcoin bull market, which is the most difficult phase to operate in.
If you want to make money from altcoins in the future, you have to dance on the edge of a knife, ready to bear these risks.
Moreover, many mainstream altcoin promoters will choose to start pumping after Bitcoin rises for a while. This is actually a form of wash trading. Many coins have this pattern; ETC is a typical representative.
Hello everyone, have you thought about it? Doesn't it feel quite similar?
So the best approach is to touch these coins as little as possible, or even avoid them altogether.
Now many people are throwing away altcoins; previously it was panic selling, and recently it's selling high in rebounds.
In summary, altcoins are indeed disappointing, but after a sustained period of retail selling, a bull market driven by VC cannot be ruled out. If you want to participate, you can only control your position and focus on swing trading mainstream coins.
Finally, let's talk about the differences between today, May 19, and May 19, 2021:
2021 was the end of a frenzied bull market cycle, and since altcoins rose significantly, they fell harder.
At that time, domestic policy was a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin holdings are relatively dispersed, with many retail investors and few ETFs and institutions.
And now it’s completely different; if Bitcoin dares to cut in half, it’s basically giving away chips, so at most, it will be a panic sell-off like today.
Today the market is down, which is also related to the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury saying, 'Failure to negotiate will restore reciprocal tariffs.' Combined with Trump’s recent mention of 'new tariffs', this has intensified panic, and the Nasdaq has been down all morning; U.S. stocks are likely to open low tonight.
Overall, Ethereum's trend is weak, breaking below the normal fluctuation range, but I think this is a panic sell-off intentionally targeted at domestic retail investors by the market makers. A rebound is expected after tonight.
If you have been active in Virtuals recently, you should have noticed that the team just released a super important major update:
They have integrated Kaito and launched an extremely comprehensive Yapper leaderboard, specifically rewarding those top Yappers and Kaito stakers with points.
Tokenomics has also been upgraded; now 20% of points are given to veVIRTUAL stakers instead of directly to token holders.
This change has closely tied the interests of long-term supporters—those willing to lock $VIRTUAL—with the interests of the protocol (Virtuals also has agent teams). It reminds me of the xGRAIL tokenomics from the previous Arb season, along with the ve(3,3) model created by Velodrome and Aerodrome on OP and Base.
Since 2021, I have been in various hot spots, and the most important lesson I learned is: no matter the situation, especially with veTokenomics models, don't lock all tokens tightly; that's truly unwise.
Why?
In simple terms, the value of $VIRTUAL relies on transaction fees; the more people buy and sell on its platform, the more valuable it becomes. The more projects there are, and the more innovative and fun the features, the more willing people are to trade on Virtuals.
Next is 'Virgen Points,' which are essential for participating in the Genesis launch. You must actively trade, hold, or lock up proxy tokens long-term, or hold $VIRTUAL (under previous rules) to obtain them. $BIOS is a prime example; this star project that surged hundreds of times attracted many builders and traders, leading to a virtuous cycle.
Virgen Points are now called 'digital gold', valued between $0.012 and $0.034. For example, if you earn 100,000 points daily, assuming you invest in successful projects, you can earn $1,200 to $3,400 every day.
Back to why I feel maximum locking isn't ideal:
1. No launch platform can remain hot forever—popularity and storytelling fluctuate like waves, influenced by many factors. The Virtuals team is great at storytelling, but with competition, no one knows how long this wave of excitement will last.
2. Points have a daily 'usable' threshold (calculated per wallet). For example, if you lock 150,000 $VIRTUAL and get 150,000 veVIRTUAL, you can earn 1.5 to 1.8 million points daily. Brother, earning so many points isn't useful; just being enough is fine.
3. There are also hidden liquidity costs. The price of tokens fluctuates periodically; when it rises quickly, you can't sell in time, and your profits slip away. By the time it falls, the opportunity is gone. Nothing can keep rising forever; the key is whether you can seize the opportunity to make the most money.
To emphasize again, looking at the data, you will find that the return on points is highly dependent on the quality of the projects you invest in, the project's popularity (how many points are put in), and how high the fully diluted valuation can rise after launch. Choosing the right project is key; a good choice leads to high point value.
How much $VIRTUAL should be locked? How to arrange the strategy?
In the worst-case scenario, $AXR requires 4 million points to fill the quota. If you earn 400,000 points daily and stick to it for a week to a week and a half, you will have enough points. This is roughly equivalent to locking 50,000 $VIRTUAL for two years.
Taking a benchmark case, $WHIM requires 820,000 points to fill the quota; earning about 100,000 points daily should be enough. That’s equivalent to locking 10,000 $VIRTUAL for two years.
The rule of thumb is to earn 100,000 to 400,000 points daily to ensure you can accumulate enough points in about a week to participate in launches from medium to very hot projects.
Whether to choose partial maximum locking of $VIRTUAL or complete mid-term locking depends on your strategy. But it's recommended to maintain a balance between liquidity and locking, flexibly responding to market conditions to profit as $VIRTUAL continues to rise.
How specifically to play?
I only lock in 5-10% of the maximum $VIRTUAL into veVIRTUAL to ensure I can accumulate enough points daily to get a full quota for popular launches. The remaining 95% stays liquid for timely selling when the market is good.
Assuming I earn 250,000 points daily and choose projects reasonably well, exiting in time, if each point is worth $0.022, that equals earning $5,500 daily, allowing for recouping costs in just 5 days.
In the worst-case scenario, if each point is worth $0.01, earning $2,750 daily would allow for cost recovery in 9 days.
I only engage in projects with optimal point value, trading short-term but holding top projects long-term. My goal is to gradually accumulate more $VIRTUAL, using Genesis launches and Virgen Points as tools to profit from $VIRTUAL.
Remember, before investing, make sure to calculate clearly; don’t lock everything due to FOMO; that's the worst choice.
Additionally, investing in Virtuals feels more like 'trading' rather than traditional technological investment (at least for now). Remember that you are investing in ultra-small market cap micro-projects with the potential for explosive growth, but also risk.