It seems that the fifth disaster of BTC appears to be a man-made calamity, or perhaps it has transformed into a different form of disaster under human influence.

Possible events of suspicion:

1. Will it be the peak period for COVID-19 announcements in mainland China on May 12? Because it was previously stated that the fifth disaster would occur between May 10 and mid-May. (Could the disaster be related to the pandemic and vaccine side effects? Because the vaccine is man-made, which aligns with the information.)

2. Could there be other possible disasters that align with human intervention?

According to the explanation from the 14th, a positive role must come before the disaster. This condition can also align with the previously often stated idea that 'reaching a new high ahead of time usually indicates a shift to bearish, occurring a hundred times, coincidentally a hundred times.' However, the reason is not known, it just feels like every time it happens, it is followed by a major bearish trend. Is the disaster a major bearish trend? The disaster can equal a major bearish trend, just in different forms.

Therefore, without knowing the reason, it is very difficult to directly determine whether the current situation belongs to reaching a new high ahead of time. However, it is already known that there is confirmed human influence, and positive role events have occurred. But I have not gone to look for news; if anyone notices news from that time, please send it to me, thank you.

According to the text from the 14th, it was already known that these events and situations would occur at that time. Therefore, after summarizing, the recommendation is not to play long, but to wait for a significant rise in positive roles before adding to the short position. Additionally, a significant bearish event for altcoins is expected to emerge starting from the 13th, which will not affect BTC. Currently, it has been observed that during the early morning, all ETH altcoins plunged, while BTC only retraced to its original position and continued to reach a new high in the morning. ETH, however, only rebounded. This is consistent with the various events described earlier.

Subsequent

1. Currently known human influence.

2. Positive role events have occurred.

3. It seems that meeting the condition of reaching a new high ahead of time corresponds to a shift to bearish (this belongs to an unknown reason, so it cannot be determined).

Based on the known three points, the so-called major collapse, or rather, this period from the shift to bearish to the future low point, suggests that what is about to come does not yet qualify as a major collapse within the entire downtrend. In other words, even if there is a decline in the next few days, this downturn will not be considered a major drop in the overall downtrend, implying that there is an even larger drop to come.

Therefore, following the recommendation on the 14th, in the case of holding a small short position, wait to short. If there is a direct drop, focus on holding the short position at hand and do not add to the position.

In the time to come, it is not just about when the major collapse occurs, but it is necessary to understand the sixth disaster in order to establish a complete form of the fifth disaster.

Need to wait for my future posts.