Preface
After experiencing a massive surge last week, this week has welcomed an extremely calm week, with the high and low points created by BTC on Monday still unbroken or breached.
As mentioned many times in previous articles: Whenever the market is in a narrow range and volatility converges, it indicates that we are getting closer to a breakout!
Let's dive into this week's '#Top Escape Weekly Report' content.
URPD
Currently, the accumulation above 81 K is 5,472,648 pieces.
In terms of the distribution speed, there were no special signals this week, still maintaining a distribution speed of around 100,000 pieces weekly.
It is worth noting that: the large accumulation zone previously at 93~99 K has now expanded upwards to 93~103 K due to the accumulation caused by the price stagnation and sideways movement this week.
As the current price is above 103 K, these massive accumulated chips are in a floating profit state, so they are all potential sources of profit-taking sell-offs!
If the market shows signs of disturbance in the future, once these chips panic, they may 'suck' the price back into the 93~103 K range, which is the gravitational effect of URPD that I have mentioned multiple times before.
RUP & Realized Profit
For an analysis logic of RUP, please refer to the following text:
Market barometer RUPL (II) – the strongest top signal & detailed analysis of historical cycle tops
Top signal tracking: Schrodinger's RUP three-stage divergence has already appeared
For an analysis logic of Realized Profit, please refer to the following text:
Top signal tracking: massive Realized Profit reappears
This week the price moved sideways, but some signs can be seen from RUP (the blue line in the chart below): RUP actually declined this week.
With the data from Realized Profit, the following conclusion can be drawn: 'Although the price is moving sideways, some low-cost chips are still being distributed and sold off here.'
In terms of the current state of RUP and Realized Profit, although there are risks, they are not obvious. However, the transmission of risk is always from small to large, so we must remain vigilant.
This week, I wrote an analysis and projection on potential future top signals: Learning from history: consolidating potential Bitcoin top signals that may appear in the future, which includes possible warnings from RUP and Realized Profit. Interested readers may refer to it.
STH-RP & US funding sentiment
For an analysis logic of STH-RP, please refer to the following post:
Countdown of fluctuations, the tightening lifeline STH-RP
The current value of STH-RP is 94,207
The focus on STH-RP remains on future pullbacks; I did not include the AVIV Heatmap this week because there are currently no signs of overheating, and the AVIV Heatmap is still in an orange state.
Instead, I will attach the 'US capital sentiment chart' that I introduced this week in the weekly report. Currently, the purple line still maintains an upward trend, and there are no signs of a 'head start'; thus, based solely on this chart, as long as US capital does not suddenly turn, there are still no signs that pose a threat to the bulls.
For a detailed explanation of the US capital sentiment chart and the 'purple line head start,' please refer to the following text: Did you know that the attitude of US capital may also show signs of divergence?
A brief discussion on the technical aspects of BTC: the fierce trend of 'high fuel consumption'
The high point created last Monday was finally broken after a week of consolidation; currently, from a smaller scale perspective, a potential Stop Hunt has emerged that has not been confirmed by taker sell.
Looking back at the rise since 75 K, it has basically been a rise under the resistance of maker sell, presenting itself in the form of: 'rise → sideways → rise → sideways → rise → sideways.'
It is worth noting that, in a normal upward trend, sideways trading is usually replaced by corrections; some schools of thought refer to this as 'recovering costs'; however, BTC's method of 'sideways instead of a drop' is both a show of strength and, as my title describes, 'high fuel consumption.'
As I stated in my previous article, if the correction is shallow during a rally, it usually discounts the 'endurance' of the trend.
The reason is:
Sideways trading is less likely to shake out the bulls compared to a downtrend, leading to a heavier vehicle.
The main force of the rally also finds it inconvenient to recover more low-priced chips during the process of the rise.
In summary, from the perspective of on-chain analysis, my view remains:
It is very likely to create an ATH, but will there be a healthier correction before the ATH?
If it directly surges to ATH, multiple risks will emerge.
If a reasonable pullback occurs first, it will need to be analyzed based on the market conditions at that time.
Finally, one last point: the 'arrows' in the attached image do not predict; they are scripts. The script may not necessarily play out, but it must exist during the analysis process.
Conclusion
Key points summary:
URPD: the massive accumulation zone has expanded upwards to 93~103 K, which is a potential sell-off source.
RUP, Realized Profit: this week we can observe the distribution of low-cost chips.
STH-RP & US capital sentiment: currently no obvious risks are seen, and US capital sentiment remains healthy.
The above analysis is just the usual talk from bears; although I know most people prefer bullish views, if you are a bull, you can take this as a 'risk warning station.'
