Fundamental overview
Ethereum's significant testnet is coming!
ETH core developers announced that they will launchthe Fusaka development network (fusaka-devnet-0) on May 26.This is a key step following the Pectra upgrade, planned to introduce multiple key features. This testnet lays the groundwork for the mainnet upgrade at the end of the year, focusing on performance, security, and modular development, providing expansion support for L2 and data availability layers.U.S. tax reform benefits released
The U.S. House committee approved Trump's tax reform bill, preparing for a possible vote this week, further strengthening the correlation between U.S. stocks and risk assets.Tariff parity pressure resurfaces
U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that if countries do not reach an agreement, the U.S. will restore tariff parity measures, indicating that the global trade pattern remains uncertain and may provide some support for the risk-averse attributes of crypto assets.
Technical analysis
BTC
Weekly structure: Six consecutive bullish candles + hammer candle combination, the trend is stable, presenting a stepwise upward structure, and the bull market's main upward trend remains intact.
Daily pattern: After a week of adjustment, yesterday's strong bullish candle broke through, closing with a solid bullish candle, soaring over 3000 points, approaching historical highs. However, the pullback is significant, indicating a need for short-term consolidation.
Key support level: The current bullish defense line is near 103K, belonging to the 7-day moving average support. As long as the structure is not broken, the bullish logic remains.
4-hour level: Rapid volume surges and drops, with obvious signs of violent washing in a short time, but whether it is the main force unloading is still unclear. Focus on the defense situation at 103K, using daily closing as a judgment basis.
Operation suggestion: Support is seen in the 102K-103K area below, while the upper short-term pressure area to watch is 105K-106K, suitable for short-term speculation combined with daily position thinking.
ETH
Weekly trend: After rising, it oscillates at a high position. Last week closed with a long shadow bearish candle, and if this week closes with a long lower shadow, it suggests a signal for restarting the upward trend.
Daily structure: Entered a consolidation period for eight days, repeatedly oscillating to build a bottom in the 2350-2280 range. A spike to 2320 occurred early morning, followed by a strong rebound. Currently in a second bottom-testing phase; if a long lower shadow bullish candle can be closed, it may signify the end of this round of consolidation.
4-hour level: Sharp pull-ups and pull-downs, with clear characteristics of volume washing. Short-term bullish and bearish battles are intense; attention should be paid to whether 2300-2280 is effectively broken.
Operation suggestion: Focus on the support band below 2350-2320 during the day, beware of spikes to 2280 that may induce short positions; the upper short pressure is in the 2480-2520 range, if the rebound is accompanied by volume, position size can be increased.
Altcoin observation
Altcoins generally retraced about 30%, currently in the normal pullback phase of the second wave top. This type of adjustment is considered 'healthy adjustment' and has not damaged the larger cycle structure.
If the market continues to decline, it will damage the main upward channel. Caution is needed for gradual entry.
With the expectation of Fusaka's launch, there may be new trading enthusiasm in the L2 direction (OP, ARB, ZK). It is recommended to focus on such technically favorable coins in the short term.
Strategy plan and reminders
HeYue will start to layout three altcoin swing positions around the current market situation, keeping the overall position risk under 10%, waiting for ETH bottom confirmation signals to resonate, and increasing the main coin volatility strategy. For intraday operations, refer to the above support/resistance areas, strictly set stop-loss, and control emotions.
