The so-called 'Alpha' has long devolved from information advantage to script advantage, and the actual participants in the entire market may be less than 30,000. There are many on-chain spectators, but few who actually spend money. Most projects cannot sustain their popularity for more than a weekend, and the remaining ones are studios mechanically maintaining activity just for the next round of airdrop snapshots.
Liquidity is only concentrated in a very small number of 'designated' cryptocurrencies. In other words, the entire ecosystem is elevating the prices of these few coins, while other projects are merely accompanying materials. On the surface, it appears to be consensus, but in reality, it is a pile-up of risks.
Airdrop delay = chain reaction
The current prosperity is essentially a game of 'trading time for liquidity.' It is expected that someone will issue coins and have airdrops, which prompts people to complete tasks, lock funds, and push rankings. Once the pace of coin issuance slows down, or the reward amounts fall below expectations, the speed of exit will far exceed the speed of entry—at that point, the liquidity withdrawal effect will quickly spread to all projects that rely on airdrop-driven incentives.
The biggest problem with this structure is that: it cannot self-generate value. There are no real users and no actual demand. Only the fast-food motivation of 'complete once, earn once.' This type of gameplay is only suitable for short-term speculation and cannot support long-term market value logic.
The platform's approach determines the market direction.
When Alpha becomes the mainstream logic, the incentive mechanism design of the platform itself becomes a source of systemic risk. Currently, most platforms' evaluation criteria are still based on easily mass-produced data points like the number of on-chain interactions and task completion rates.
If the incentive model of 'reward for brushing' continues to be tolerated, what will remain in the end will not be quality users, but a graveyard of zombie wallets and a batch of tokens doomed to crash.
There are only two ways out.
First, begin to liquidate the illusion driven by 'brushing volume' and shift the incentive structure towards real user behavior. For example, binding long-term locked funds, social influence, off-chain identity verification, contribution proof, and other composite indicators.
Second, reallocate liquidity resources. Do not let liquidity be forever concentrated on a few hot projects, but rather encourage liquidity 'rotation' through mechanisms, allowing more projects to have the basic trading depth and survival space.
In summary:
If the frequency of airdrops decreases or the pace delays in the next month, this wave of Alpha projects will face a collective stall. The market seems lively, but it is actually self-destructing.