According to data from the U.S. Treasury, the federal government recorded a rare monthly budget surplus of $256 billion in April 2025.

Many media outlets attribute this result to record tariff revenue.

However, the total tariff revenue for the U.S. in April was only $16 billion, although it was $9 billion during the same period last year, and the historical record for U.S. tariffs is $9.6 billion.

But this over $10 billion in tariffs actually has little impact on the overall situation.

April each year is the peak of federal tax revenue for the U.S. (with the personal income tax filing deadline in mid-April), so there is usually a surplus in April.

The main reason for the higher revenue for the U.S. government this year is still that Americans' incomes have increased.

The total revenue in April 2025 was approximately $850 billion, a 10% increase compared to the same month last year, with the growth in personal and payroll tax revenue being the main driving factor.

Looking at the whole year, personal income tax accounts for the majority of federal government revenue, with over half of the income coming from here.

In fact, the second column, Payroll Taxes, translates to '薪资税' in Chinese, which is the tax companies must pay when issuing salaries to employees, so it is also a form of income tax.

The third column is corporate income tax, which has significantly decreased this year. This factor also shows that the U.S. economy is actually holding up: the profitability of major companies is declining, and the increase in personal income mainly relies on government borrowing and spending.

Tariffs can only be categorized under other items.

Although revenue is increasing, federal expenditures for the first seven months of the 2025 fiscal year were about $4.16 trillion, a 9% increase compared to the same period last year.

Among them, the most unmanageable support item is interest expenses. Currently, the U.S. government needs $100 billion each month to pay interest on national debt.

It should be noted that interest expenses are the purest form of 'sunk costs', directly expanding the deficit without generating any public services.

Moreover, interest expenses are quite predictable. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates this year, interest expenses will directly account for a quarter of U.S. government revenue, becoming the largest expenditure item for the government, and it will only get larger in the future.

At this point, some may ask if raising tariffs could possibly pay off interest income?

I can only tell you that you are overthinking it.

Considering that the U.S. imports only $3.4 trillion worth of goods in total in 2024, even if the average tariff rises to 20%, without considering the impact on import volume, the annual revenue would be less than $70 million.

This year, interest expenses on U.S. debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion, and the overall deficit of the federal government is as high as $2 trillion.

If excessive tariff revenue leads to inflation, causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, expenses may exceed revenue.

No wonder old Buffett said at the shareholder meeting a few days ago that the dollar is going to hell~

To summarize simply:

  • It is normal for the U.S. government to turn a profit in April because of tax filings.

  • Revenue growth mainly relies on income tax, and the impact of tariffs is minimal.

  • The financial situation of the U.S. government is still quite troublesome. In the short term, it can only rely on issuing debt to maintain, which is unsustainable.

  • If you want to solve the financial problem, you can't rely on tariffs; you'll have to think of other measures (most likely stablecoins).


On another note, if the dollar really fails, have you bought your Bitcoin yet?