The number of people holding ETH long-term is decreasing from 63% to 55%. Short-term speculators are selling off madly, leading to a vicious cycle where prices drop further and further. Staking yields are too low: the annualized yield for earning interest on ETH is only 3%, which is not as good as other coins (for example, Solana has 5%). If prices continue to fall, it might trigger a collective sell-off by stakers. Institutions are pulling out: large institutions have withdrawn $2.4 billion from ETH funds and are investing in other coins that can earn interest, leaving ETH with no buyers. If the technical upgrade in the second half of next year fails: if ETH's 'Pectra upgrade' does not go well (for example, delays or poor results), the price could plummet to $1,000. If the SEC prohibits ETFs from earning staking interest in October, institutions may completely abandon ETH, and its price compared to Bitcoin could be cut in half. Solana's users and trading volume are crushing ETH. If the SOL/ETH exchange rate rises above 0.1, funds will be pulled out of ETH. If the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts until the end of the year or suddenly experiences a black swan event like an exchange hack, ETH could plummet in a single day. Support level: Currently, $1,400 is a psychological barrier; if broken, it could drop to $1,200 (the lowest point in 2023), and in the worst case, it could fall to $1,000. Bounce-back opportunity: To rise back to $1,800-$1,900, it would rely on institutions buying ETFs again or policy loosening, but that is very difficult. Short-term survival: Buy some put options (for example, betting it drops to $1,200) and get out quickly if it falls below $1,400. Long-term bet on reversal: If ETH can solve the issue of low staking yields or successfully upgrade its technology, it can be gradually accumulated at $1,000-$1,200. If you want to delve deeper into the crypto space but can't find a clue, and want to quickly learn about information asymmetry, click on my profile to follow me for firsthand information and in-depth analysis!
