PI Network, PI#PI Network ، PI#
45% down after the hype fades, what's next?
Pi Coin has dropped 45% after a brief rally fueled by the 2025 consensus announcements, with indicators and on-chain data pointing to weak momentum and a bearish outlook unless new catalysts emerge. Key Highlights: Pi Coin has dropped 45% from its recent high, currently trading at $0.6984. The market cap surged 95% in 5 days and then fell $3.7 billion in 3 days. The top 100 portfolio concentration dropped from 98.76% to less than 5% from May 6 to May 16. EMAS at $0.79-$0.85 has turned into resistance, confirming the bearish momentum. Analysts remain cautiously bearish amid fading indicators and failed support. PI Network (PI) is currently trading at $0.6984, down more than 45% from its recent high of $1.57, with the market cap now at $5.1 billion. From May 8 to May 13, PI's market cap jumped from $4.5 billion to $8.8 billion, nearly doubling in just five days. But by May 16, it had fallen back to $5.1 billion, losing over $3.7 billion in just three days. This sharp decline followed a short-lived price surge due to major announcements—including the closure of PI's central node and the launch of a $100 million PI Network Fund, both of which were revealed during Consensus 2025 (May 13-14). The rapid rise and fall demonstrates that PI's price continues to react quickly to news rather than steadily grow.While it briefly caught the market's attention, the rapid decline has increased caution among traders. PI/USDT Technical Analysis: Indicators Show Weak Momentum and a Bearish Bias The rally that began on May 8 lifted PI above $1, peaking at $1.57 on May 13, driven by major news. But the buying power faded just as quickly. Now, PI is trading below the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs—stacked between $0.79 and $0.85—which have flipped to resistance. The MACD has turned bearish, with the line almost crossing below the signal. The histogram, though not yet red, is narrowing, indicating buying pressure. The RSI, now at 42, indicates neutral momentum to the seed. The Balance Volume (OBV), which reflects buying pressure, is down 12% from its recent high, suggesting a slowdown in net accumulation. Resistance is located at $0.79-$0.85. PI Coin is now testing key support levels at $0.68 and $0.59, which were important price areas prior to the May 8 rally. Instead of moving sideways in a range, the price has declined from the peak and is now consolidating where buyers previously stepped in, awaiting a new catalyst for a reversal. A break below $0.59 could open the way to $0.45. PI Grid analysis remains cautiously bearish unless the PI retraces its EMAs with strong volume. PI On-Chain Metrics: Portfolio Focus Shifts, Volume Declines. Volume has risen to 2.$2 billion on May 12, then fell to $588 million by May 16, below 73%, indicating a fading hype cycle. The Coincarp chart, which displays portfolio distribution by holder, shows that the top 100 portfolio concentration fell sharply from 98.76% on May 6 to 14.76% by May 13, before stabilizing below 5% by May 16. Specifically, on May 13, the top 10 holders owned only 1.31%, and the top 50 held 2.7%. This dramatic shift likely reflects internal portfolio reframing rather than actual retail distribution. The rapid redistribution during the rally is consistent with bearish technical indicators, suggesting that major holders may have profited during the hype phase. Conclusion: Event-driven sentiment keeps PI volatile. The 45% PI Network rally and subsequent sharp correction were driven by short-lived hype, particularly from announcements made during the 2025 consensus (May 13-14). This reflects how event-driven sentiment continues to drive PI's price more than fundamental advances. The rapid market cap swing—a $3.7 billion drop in just three days—reveals how PI remains sensitive to headlines. Going forward, potential catalysts such as a mainnet activation or ecosystem adoption could drive interest. Until then, PI will likely continue to trade on speculative momentum, and traders should closely monitor support areas for further attempts to arrange relief on the downside.
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