Market Overview:
Bitcoin has been trading sideways for more than 8 days now, forming a tight consolidation range with no real breakout in sight.
This kind of price action typically signals accumulation or distribution by larger players. While it may seem indecisive on the surface, this phase is often where the market sets its trap. What looks like inaction is actually a setup in progress. Price is compressing, volume is thinning out, and both bulls and bears are being lured in. That’s a perfect recipe for a sudden, aggressive move that wipes out one side entirely.
Liquidity Structure:
The structure of this range is very clean, which in trading terms usually means dangerous. On the top side, we have a lot of liquidity, just above 105,800. This level has been tapped multiple times but never convincingly broken, and it now acts as a magnet for liquidity. On the flip side, the downside holds multiple clean lows, all clustered under the 100,000 mark. Both ends of this range are packed with liquidity. Smart money doesn’t trade in fair value, it trades where the most liquidity sits, and in this case, both the top and bottom of the range are loaded.
Inducement and Manipulation:
The real purpose of this kind of range is not balance, it’s inducement. The market is inviting traders to take breakout positions on both sides, knowing full well that it’s unlikely to follow through cleanly. I believe we are currently in the inducement phase of the cycle. The equal highs around 105,800 are baiting breakout longs and short stop-losses alike. A move above that level would act as the stop hunt, triggering the final wave of longs before the rug is pulled. Once that liquidity is taken, I expect a sharp reversal that targets the lows of the range and continues further toward the real pool of liquidity sitting between 98,000 and 97,500.
Scenario Outlook:
The most probable sequence from here is a fake breakout to the upside, followed by an impulsive selloff. A wick above 105,800 would serve as the signal, and once that inducement is cleared, the move down should be fast and decisive. This drop would take out the range lows and sweep the stops of everyone who tried to buy the breakout. If price does hold above 105,800 and shows continuation with strong volume and follow-through, that would be an invalidation of this short setup and a shift in structure, in which case I would reassess and wait for a pullback before considering any longs.
Price Target and Expectations:
The first key event is the sweep above 105,800. That’s where breakout traders will commit, and that’s where I expect the reversal to begin. From there, downside targets include the low of the range and deeper liquidity near 98,000 to 97,500. This area aligns with a big imbalance zone, inefficiencies and the golden pocket fib level.. The expectation is for a quick drop once the trap is sprung, with a potential for a reaction or even a new bullish setup forming near that demand region.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin has been compressing for over a week, and that usually ends with expansion. But expansion is not always trend continuation, especially when the structure suggests manipulation. The current setup looks ideal for a stop run above the range before dumping into deeper liquidity. The key is to wait for the sweep and watch how price reacts. The more obvious the breakout, the more likely it is to fail. Liquidity is king in this environment, and right now, the biggest pockets lie below.
Trade at your own Risk 👍
Best Regards, Trade
Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
