1️⃣ Policies and regulations: Global crypto compliance is accelerating.
- Aftershocks of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision: Despite maintaining interest rates in May, market expectations for a rate cut in June are heating up, liquidity easing may become a catalyst for crypto asset price increases.
- Countdown to the US stablecoin bill: The Senate may vote this week (GENIUS stablecoin bill), if passed, it will mandate 100% reserve asset backing for stablecoins, potentially causing USDT/USDC market cap fluctuations.
- State-level Bitcoin reserve wave: If Arizona's strategic Bitcoin reserve bill is signed by the governor, it may trigger similar actions from other states, which would be long-term bullish for BTC demand.
Focus on short-term opportunities in the stablecoin sector (like USDC, PAXG) and compliant public chains (like SOL, NEAR) after policy implementation.
2️⃣ Institutional capital undercurrents: Traditional capital is accelerating entry.
- Public companies' 'coin hoarding frenzy': Japan's Metaplanet continues to increase BTC holdings (total holding of 5,555 coins), Canadian SOL Strategies issues $500 million bonds betting on the Solana ecosystem.
- ETF capital siphoning effect: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $880 million in one week, Ethereum ETF demand is rebounding, and institutional control trend is intensifying.
- Traditional finance crossover: Mastercard's crypto payment cards cover 150 million merchants, Dubai's Emirates NBD Bank launches crypto trading services, fiat entry continues to expand.
3️⃣ Technological upgrades and ecological explosion.
- Ethereum Layer2 efficiency leap: After Pectra upgrade, gas fees drop by 8%, Arbitrum's locked value surpasses $30 billion, ecological tokens (like STRK) may see a rebound.
- Solana Breakpoint Conference: September events may boost SOL's popularity, Firedancer client upgrade and institutional staking are focal points.
- AI + Web3 integration accelerates: Apple collaborates with Anthropic on blockchain AI tools, MCP protocol algorithm optimization attracts market attention, AI sector tokens (like FET, RNDR) may become targets for capital rotation.
Ambush Layer2 airdrops (like Starknet), low market cap projects in the AI sector, avoid chasing already surged targets.
4️⃣ Market hotspots: Meme frenzy and risk warnings.
- Trump-themed coins continue to be speculated: TRUMP coin market cap exceeds $700 million, the Trump family plans to launch a utility token DJT, which could become a benchmark for tokenization in the US stock market when combined with the Truth Social ecosystem.
- Solana Meme coin fluctuations: BONK2.0 surged 890% in three days, PumpSwap trading volume accounts for 19% of Solana DEX, highlighting high risk and volatility attributes.
- Token unlocking wave: Arbitrum unlocks 900 million ARB this week (approximately $49.87 million), beware of selling pressure risks from projects like OMNI and REZ.
5️⃣ Risk warning.
- Regulatory backlash: SEC plans to tighten ETF reviews, Democrats push for 'crypto corruption bill', policy uncertainties still exist.
- Contract leverage strangulation: Total open positions across the network reach $64.2 billion, with 60% of positions concentrated in the BTC range of 103,000-106,000, ±3% fluctuations could trigger both long and short liquidations.
- DeFi security crisis: April's hacker attack resulted in losses exceeding $92 million, caution against low liquidity protocols and unaudited contracts.