Analysis: macroeconomics, on-chain, supply $BTC , government trends towards asset funds). BTC is expected to increase 5–20 times from the post-halving phase in 2025.
* GLOBAL MACRO CONTEXT (2025–2029) Main Trend Factors:
- Global inflation stabilizing below 3% in the US & EU, but rising sharply in developing countries
- The USD is gradually losing its exclusive status due to US public debt exceeding $40 trillion + prolonged high-interest rates.
- Asset shift Gold – BTC – Real assets rise as investors avoid fiat
- Trust in central banks is gradually declining, especially in Africa, Southeast Asia, South America
** GOVERNMENT ACTIONS & LARGE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
- Behavioral targets for BTC Spot ETFs held by BlackRock, Fidelity >10% of total BTC supply
- Countries holding BTC: the US (directly through seizure), El Salvador, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Bhutan, Brazil (indirectly)
- Central banks Some begin to hold BTC (small percentage) as gold reserves
- Sovereign wealth funds
-> The period 2026–2027 will allocate 1–3% to BTC, equivalent to hundreds of billions of USD
***. BTC SUPPLY ANALYSIS (ON-CHAIN)
• Maximum supply: 21 million BTC
• Mined considering the 2025 halving: 19.7 million
• Estimated lost BTC: 3.5–4 million
• BTC locked (ETFs, Grayscale, wallets holding >10 years): ~5–6 million
• => Actual BTC liquidity is around ~10 million
With limited supply + institutional demand increasing exponentially => prices cannot remain low if large amounts of money flow in
****BTC PRICE FORECAST (2025–2029)
Scenario Target BTC Price Main Conditions Basis (x5)$500k – $600k
20–30 countries + ETFs + institutional money allocating 3–5% of portfolios
Strong (x10)$1M– $1.2M
- Local USD crisis, BTC becomes a level 2 national reserve asset
- Super surge (x20)$2M – $2.4M
