Have we welcomed the season of copycats?

This month, Ethereum leads to promote 'alt season'

It is noteworthy that the current tariff war has a 90-day pause, with the US tariff cap on China set at 30%. The market reacts optimistically, but it is important to note that the global effective tariff rate remains as high as 17.8%.

When Trump took office, the tariff rate was 2.5%.

Polymarket predicts a 40% chance of economic recession on May 15.

The cryptocurrency market is the asset class most sensitive to liquidity conditions.

What factors confirm 'altseason'? (Historical reference)

1. The last year of the cycle

2. The dominance of BTC is initially in the range of 65-70%

3. Transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing

4. Rise in ETH/BTC ratio

5. Retail index and animal meme explosion

We are still in the early stages of this process. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is still 0.024, and in USD terms, ETH's trading price has dropped 46% from its historical high. The Federal Reserve is still implementing quantitative easing policies.

Historical review

The 35% increase in ETH last week is surprisingly similar to the 68% increase from January 1, 2021, to January 7, 2021 (from $729 to $1,224).

At that time, the ETH/BTC ratio was 0.03, and just four months later, it rose to 0.07, with ETH/USD increasing by 370%.

This triggered a surge in altcoins, NFTs, 'metaverse' tokens, and alt L1 tokens. From January 2021 to May 2021, the market experienced almost no pullback. Subsequently, in mid-July, ETH underwent a significant sell-off (ETH fell from $4000 to $1800), and then rebounded to a historical high in November.

Some altcoins (such as Terra Luna) continued to rise, surpassing the peaks of BTC and ETH, and ultimately, we welcomed a bear market.