Bitcoin's price could soar above $200,000 next year, according to recent analysis from account X Apsk32. He warns that the familiar four-year cycle for BTC often comes with new highs. Short selling has heavily impacted traders in the past. This time, bullish speculators believe Bitcoin could even reach $250,000 by 2025.

According to Apsk32, Bitcoin often lags behind gold by a few months. Gold hit a record of $3,500 an ounce earlier this year. If Bitcoin follows that path, it could soar. He measures Bitcoin's market value in ounces of gold rather than dollars. This way, money printing and inflation do not skew the perspective.

Power Curve Model

Apsk32 uses what he calls the "power curve" tool. It matches Bitcoin's market cap to ounces of gold into a smooth curve. This tool stretches back to the 2017 high of nearly $20,000. When plotted, it shows the bullish market peak for 2025 above $200,000. He told X followers that "if Bitcoin's position relative to gold continues to improve, the returns could exceed expectations."

Realistic Price Target

While some models project levels of $444,000 this year—which Apsk32 notes is "five years before being supported"—he believes a more realistic target is $220,000. He added that there is a "fairly high likelihood" that BTC will reach $250,000, but he does not consider that the most likely outcome. The $220,000 level would still mark a tenfold increase from Bitcoin's low of nearly $22,000 at the end of 2022.

Gold Market Scenario

Other market experts have conducted another experiment. They consider how much Bitcoin could be worth if it captured a portion of gold's total value. If gold reaches, for example, $5,000 an ounce by 2030 and Bitcoin captures half of gold's market cap, BTC could reach a price of over $920,000. But then, these numbers are based on scenarios, not certain predictions.

Supply and Demand Factors

The supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins. Each halving event makes new BTC rarer. These events occur about every four years. The next event is expected to take place in 2024. After that, the reward for miners will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Scarcity has driven prices up in previous cycles. But demand may change if large investors withdraw.

Risks and Opportunities

The volatility of both gold and Bitcoin could disrupt these models. Gold may face a sudden drop as traders take profits. Bitcoin has fluctuated 20% or more in just one day prior. Regulatory moves, geopolitical events, and technological upgrades all play a role. However, establishing clear price scenarios helps investors plan.