Dogecoin (DOGE) continues to attract attention after rising over 25% in the past two weeks, peaking at $0.24 before slightly dropping to $0.22 at the time of reporting. This price action reflects a broader bullish sentiment across the cryptocurrency market but also brings a mix of optimism and caution among analysts.
While some predict further growth, others warn that increased retail speculation could signal downside risks in the short term.
Retail traders flood DOGE futures—Should caution be exercised?
According to chain analyst Burak Kesmeci, Dogecoin's recent price surge is primarily driven by retail traders, especially in the futures market. In a quick summary from CryptoQuant titled 'Too Many Retail Traders? DOGE Futures Show Repeating Top Patterns', Kesmeci presented data showing the correlation between retail trading spikes and local price peaks.
His analysis uses a visual measure where red bubbles mark increased speculative activity from retail traders. Traditionally, these periods often occur before short-term corrections in DOGE's price.
Kesmeci explains: 'The dominance of retail traders in the DOGE futures market continuously signals momentum exhaustion.'
Conversely, green and pink bubbles—indicating reduced retail participation—often align with more stable or accumulation phases, suggesting that retail hype may be a contrary signal in the short term.
Technical indicators signal bullish potential
While futures market data shows caution, some analysts remain optimistic. Technical expert Javon Marks believes Dogecoin may still be poised for a significant price surge. According to Marks, DOGE has flashed a bullish chart confirmation, which could lead to a nearly 200% increase from current levels.
Marks notes that 'This setup reflects previous breakout structures', also adding that the momentum of this asset seems strong enough to test new highs.
The difference in this outlook reflects the complex nature of market sentiment, as technical setups and on-chain behavior do not always align.