I believe this round of the crypto bull market has not truly arrived yet: 1. BlackRock and other institutions have been continuously increasing their BTC holdings; 2. The vast majority (over 95%) of mainstream cryptocurrencies have not reached the peak of the last bull market and are far from it, while a true bull market is characterized by a state of all arrows flying together; 3. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to last a long time and will probably be concentrated in the latter half of 2025 Q3 and Q4, with potential cuts even in Q1 and Q2 of 2026.
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1. BlackRock and other institutions continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings
BlackRock's recent active performance in the Bitcoin market has significantly enhanced institutional investors' confidence. In May 2025, BlackRock purchased approximately $409.7 million worth of Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Additionally, the fund absorbed $970 million worth of Bitcoin in a single day on April 28, increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to over 3% of market supply. These large-scale purchases indicate that institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and may signal that the market is about to enter a broader bull market phase.
2. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have not yet reached the peak of the last bull market
Although the price of Bitcoin has stabilized above $100,000, many mainstream cryptocurrencies have not yet returned to the peak values of the 2021 bull market. For example, Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced about 37% lower than its historical high in 2021. However, Ethereum has performed strongly recently due to the Pectra upgrade, rising 45% in May, surpassing Bitcoin's 10.7% increase. Additionally, other mainstream cryptocurrencies such as XRP and Solana have also shown upward trends. This indicates that the market may be in the early stages of transitioning from Bitcoin dominance to a broader 'all arrows flying together' phase.
3. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are concentrated in the second half of 2025 and 2026
The Federal Reserve's latest forecast indicates that there may be two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, with the target federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4.00%. Goldman Sachs expects the first rate cut to occur in December 2025, followed by additional cuts in March and June 2026. This means that the actual easing of monetary policy may not be apparent until the second half of 2025, and its stimulating effect on the cryptocurrency market will gradually manifest at that time.
Summary
The current market conditions show active participation from institutional investors and a preliminary recovery of mainstream cryptocurrencies, but have not yet reached the characteristics of a full bull market. With the gradual implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and further price increases of mainstream cryptocurrencies, the market may enter a broader bull market phase in the second half of 2025. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic policies and market dynamics, and carefully formulate investment strategies.