Negative factors
• Impact of hawkish expectations: Powell may emphasize that inflation remains at a high level or be cautious about future interest rate cut expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not significantly cut rates or even pause cuts soon. Previously, the market expected multiple rate cuts this year, but the signals Powell has released may indicate only two cuts in 2025, which could exert significant pressure on Bitcoin's price, leading to a decline.
• Positive evaluation of the economic situation: If Powell makes a relatively positive evaluation of the U.S. economic situation, emphasizing the resilience of the economy and the stability of the job market, this may reduce market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby decreasing the attractiveness of risk assets such as Bitcoin and suppressing prices.#美国PPI数据来袭
Positive factors
• Expectations of interest rate cuts and economic data: If Powell's speech mentions factors such as economic slowdown and a weak job market, or if economic data, such as retail sales, does not meet expectations, this may increase market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, providing certain support for Bitcoin.
• Institutional demand and market trends: From a long-term perspective, institutional investors' demand for Bitcoin remains, and products like Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows. Additionally, Bitcoin shows certain bullish signals in technical analysis, such as price finding support near key support levels, which may limit the decline in Bitcoin's price.
Uncertain factors
• Ambiguity in Powell's statements: Powell's speech may contain certain ambiguities and will not provide a specific timeline or policy direction for interest rate cuts, leading to divergent market interpretations and increased volatility in Bitcoin's price.
• Unpredictability of market sentiment: Market sentiment itself is complex and variable. Even if Powell's speech is relatively clear, market participants' reactions may differ due to their individual expectations and risk preferences, making it difficult to accurately predict Bitcoin's price movements.
Operational suggestions
• Short-term traders: Given that Powell's speech tonight may trigger significant fluctuations in Bitcoin's price, if you are a short-term trader with a low risk tolerance, it is advisable to partially reduce positions or set stop-loss orders before the speech to manage risk. After the speech, decide whether to increase or further reduce positions based on market reactions. If Bitcoin's price shows a significant drop after the speech and breaks through key support levels such as $100,000, consider increasing short positions; conversely, if the price rises and breaks through key resistance levels such as $105,000, consider reducing short positions or appropriately increasing long positions.
• Medium to long-term investors: If you are a medium to long-term investor, relatively insensitive to short-term market fluctuations, and optimistic about Bitcoin's future development prospects, such as the expansion of its technological applications and long-term layouts by institutional investors, then you may consider continuing to hold. However, it is also advisable to closely monitor market dynamics and changes in the macroeconomic situation to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.
