37% of Polymarket players think so

Having stayed above the $100,000 threshold for more than a week, analysts and Bitcoin enthusiasts are closely analyzing every price fluctuation in search of hints about its future direction. At the same time, prediction markets assign significant probability to Bitcoin maintaining its six-figure status by the end of the year.

Frenzy in the prediction market

Platforms like Polymarket — a decentralized blockchain-based platform, and Kalshi — a regulated U.S. market, have become popular places for predicting future events over the past year.

Among this year's forecasts is the valuation of Bitcoin, and Polymarket participants predict that BTC will remain above $100,000 by the end of the year. Indeed, with a trading volume of $9.51 million, participants assign an 87% probability that Bitcoin will enter the $110,000 range.

The bet assigns a 73% probability that BTC will exceed $120,000, with a 61% probability of testing $130,000 by December 31, 2025. 37% of Polymarket market participants believe that $150,000 is achievable, while 17% are betting on $200,000.

The threshold of $250,000 has a 10% probability, and only 3% dare to envision BTC reaching a seven-figure amount. Meanwhile, 38% expect Bitcoin to trade around $70,000, while 17% foresee a drop to $50,000. Interestingly, 5% are betting that BTC will fall to $20,000 by the end of the year. A prompt on Kalshi asks, 'When will Bitcoin reach $150K?', and the probability of this happening before 2026 is 30%.

Bets on Kalshi assign an 18% probability of reaching $150,000 by October and a 6% probability by July. With two weeks left until the end of May, another bet on Polymarket — with a volume of $210,766 — implies a 48% probability that BTC will reach a new all-time high by the end of the month.

These forecasts show a compelling mix of caution and optimism among bettors, suggesting that price fluctuations may continue even if new records are set. The sentiment, fueled by both historical precedents and forward-looking bets, paints a picture of a market balancing between euphoria and prudence, where expectations are as unstable as the asset itself.

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