Polygon is at risk of a significant price drop following the formation of a bearish technical pattern—despite the rise of its decentralized finance and stablecoin activity.
The Polygon (POL) token was trading at $0.2355 on Thursday, down a few points from this week's high of $0.2765.
DeFi Llama data shows that the amount of stablecoins in its ecosystem is increasing again this month. Stablecoin supply rose to $1.98 billion, up from a year-to-date low of $1.67 billion.
Meanwhile, a report from Messari noted that the supply of stablecoins on the network increased by 23% in the first quarter, while the number of active stablecoin wallets increased by 30%.
DAI holds a 47% market share on Polygon, followed by USD Coin and Tether with 31% and 13% shares respectively.
Additional data shows that the total value locked on the polygon network is slowly recovering. TVL is $1.03 billion, up from an all-time low of $736 million.
The growth in terms of POLs has been even more remarkable, with the number rising to 4.35 billion POLs from 1.86 billion POLs in January.
Nansen's data also showed that the number of weekly transactions on Polygon rose 9% to 19.27 million, more than Arbitrum's 12 million.
Decentralized exchange transactions on Polygon surged 48.46% in the past seven days to nearly $1 billion.
Polygon's main challenge is that it continues to lose market share to newer Layer-2 networks like Unichain, Base, and Orbitrum. For example, Unichain, which was launched in February, handled more than $3.8 billion in transactions.
Polygonal Price Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that POL bottomed out at $0.1500 in April and then rebounded as the broader crypto market rallied.
The token has retested key resistance at around $0.2863, the lowest level since November last year.
However, the coin has formed a slowly rising wedge pattern, defined by two upward sloping and converging trend lines.
This pattern often signals a possible bearish breakdown when the price is near the confluence point.
If a breakdown occurs, Polygon could fall to the next support level at $0.1504, the April low, which is about 40% below the current price. A decisive move above the $0.30 resistance level will invalidate the bearish outlook.